THE RATE UPDATE
HOUSING MARKET CRASH TEST
HOMEBUILDER STOCKS SINCE 2021
Show Visual
Homebuilder Stocks Since 2021: You Might Be Amazed
A lot of people said homebuilder stocks would plunge because the housing market was going to crash. But if they shorted the builders from 2021 to today, the returns tell a very different story.
Equal-weighted builder basket
+104.4%
$10,000 short each builder
-$52,198
Core show question
Right or Wrong?
If You Shorted These Homebuilders in 2021...
| Company | Early 2021 Ref. Price | Current Price | Stock Move | $10k Short Result | Visual Move |
|---|
| DHID.R. Horton | $72.87 | $146.47 | +101.0% | -$10,100 | |
| LENLennar | $68.34 | $86.20 | +26.1% | -$2,613 | |
| PHMPulteGroup | $41.34 | $117.97 | +185.4% | -$18,537 | |
| TOLToll Brothers | $48.36 | $137.28 | +183.9% | -$18,387 | |
| KBHKB Home | $38.55 | $48.42 | +25.6% | -$2,560 | |
Note: Early 2021 prices are approximate reference prices used for show analysis. Current prices were pulled May 6, 2026, pre-market/live market snapshot. Short-sale result is simplified and excludes borrow costs, dividends owed, margin interest, taxes, transaction costs, and timing differences.
The Big Show Point
“The crashers were right about pressure. They were wrong about the trade.”
Where the crash crowd had a point
- Affordability broke for a lot of buyers.
- Mortgage payments exploded when rates moved higher.
- New home inventory rose and builders had to offer incentives.
- Some markets saw real price cuts and slower demand.
Where the short trade failed
- Builders used rate buydowns, closing-cost credits, and incentives.
- Existing homeowners stayed locked into low mortgage rates.
- Builders controlled supply better than many expected.
- Stocks priced in future recovery, not just today's pain.
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