1) Home Prices Since 2022
National home prices did not fall enough to restore affordability. Buyers are still financing much more house value than they were just a few years ago.
Talking points
- Prices stayed elevated. That means higher loan balances and bigger monthly payments.
- Affordability is being squeezed by price first, before you even add the mortgage rate.
- Show line: “This isn’t cheap houses with expensive rates. It’s expensive houses and expensive money.”
Case-Shiller national index in Jan 2022.
Latest reading in Mar 2026.
That price move alone makes the payment harder.
2) Long-Run Housing Stress / “Foreclosure Context”
To show people this is not 2008, this chart uses a consistent 20-year national stress gauge: the Fed’s single-family mortgage delinquency rate. It captures the bigger picture behind foreclosure pressure. Today’s stress is real, but nowhere near crash-era forced selling.
Talking points
- Crisis peak: housing stress exploded during the last housing bust and peaked at 10.89% in 2010.
- Today: the 2025 annual average was 1.78% and Q1 2026 came in at 1.89%.
- Bottom line: we have affordability pain, not a national foreclosure spiral.
Before the bust, stress was low.
Annual average in 2010.
Much lower than the bust years.
3) Mortgage Rates Since 2019
Mortgage rates are the second big affordability blow. This chart now includes the 2023 MND daily peak above 8%, which is the payment-shock moment many buyers still remember.
Talking points
- 2021 spoiled everyone. Ultra-low mortgage rates created a payment world buyers cannot get today.
- 2023 crossed 8%. Mortgage News Daily’s index hit 8.03% in October 2023.
- Show line: “You don’t need a crash for affordability to break — high rates can do it all by themselves.”
Representative low-rate era marker.
MND daily index high in October 2023.
MND daily index, June 3, 2026.
The One-Sentence Takeaway
Source Notes
Home prices use the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index from FRED. Housing stress uses the Federal Reserve’s delinquency rate on single-family residential mortgages from FRED as a consistent long-run proxy for foreclosure pressure. Mortgage-rate visuals now include Mortgage News Daily’s daily index for the 8.03% October 2023 peak and current-rate marker, plus longer-run Freddie Mac/FRED context.