National Peak→Trough (2006–2012)−27%
Case‑Shiller 20‑City Composite−35%
Worst Large‑Metro Pullbacks (2022→2025)−10% to −24%
Recent National YoY TrendPositive
Sources: S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller; CoreLogic repeat‑sales; author synthesis through Jul–Aug 2025.
When the 2008 Crash Began
Peak: July 2006 (national). Trough: ~Feb–Mar 2012. Foreclosures and forced sales amplified declines in the “bubble” metros.
Top 5 Peak→Trough Declines (2006–2012)
| Metro | Approx. Decline | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas, NV | −61% | Case‑Shiller |
| Phoenix, AZ | −56% | Case‑Shiller |
| Riverside–San Bernardino, CA | −54% | CoreLogic repeat‑sales |
| Miami, FL | −50% | Case‑Shiller |
| Tampa, FL | −46% | Case‑Shiller |
Nationally: −27% (Case‑Shiller national); 20‑City Composite: −35%.
2021–Today (Latest Data)
Post‑pandemic peaks were mostly in 2022. Since then, multiple markets cooled—especially prior high‑flyers. The worst large‑metro drawdowns have been single‑digit to low‑double‑digit.
Notable Peak→Current Pullbacks (2022→2025)
| Metro | Approx. Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Austin, TX | ~−24% | Outside CS‑20; metro trackers |
| San Francisco, CA | ~−11% | Case‑Shiller |
| Phoenix, AZ | ~−10% | Case‑Shiller trend |
| Oakland/East Bay, CA | ~−20% to −24% | Bay Area trackers |
| Tampa, FL | −2% to −4% YoY mid‑2025 | Case‑Shiller YoY |
National and CS‑20 indexes recently remain modestly positive year‑over‑year; monthly prints have softened.