| Latest | 2.9% (Aug 2025) |
| Δ vs Prior | 0.0 pp vs Jul |
| Latest | 4.3% (Aug 2025 — last official) |
| Δ vs Prior | Δ vs Jul 2025: 0.0 pp |
| Latest | −32,000 (Sep 2025) |
| Δ vs Prior | −29,000 vs Aug (−3,000) |
| Latest | Government shutdown — limited/paused reporting |
| Δ vs Prior | — |
| Latest | Government shutdown — limited/paused reporting |
| Δ vs Prior | — |
| 🎯 Scenario | 🏦 10‑yr UST | 🏠 UMBS 30‑yr | 🧭 Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (short shutdown) | 3.95–4.10% | Firmer | ⏳Float carefully |
| Extended shutdown (>2 wks) | 4.10–4.30% | Weaker | 🔒Lock on rallies |
| Dovish Fed / soft PCE | < 3.95% | Stronger | 🚀Float short‑term |
Regulatory: © 2025 The Rate Update with Dan Frio. NMLS #246527 | Bank NMLS #203463 | Equal Housing Lender.
No Commitment to Lend: Information herein is educational and for general purposes only; it is not a loan approval or offer to extend credit. All loans subject to credit, income, and property approval. Rates, terms, and programs may change without notice and may not be available in all states.
Disclaimers: Rate scenarios are illustrative and may differ based on credit profile, LTV, occupancy, loan amount, and lock period. Taxes, insurance, HOA dues, MI, and fees may apply. APR reflects total finance charges over the loan term and varies by county and title fees.
Independence: Views expressed are the presenter’s and do not necessarily reflect the views of any affiliated institution. Content is not investment, legal, or tax advice. Consult appropriate professionals.
Fair Lending: We support equal housing opportunity. We do not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, handicap, or familial status.
Data Sources: Mortgage News Daily, BEA, BLS, ADP, Treasury, and Bloomberg coverage; see links in each tile for the latest releases.
