Short‑Term Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)
- Base case: Core PCE modest/steady; GDP not alarming → 30‑yr conforming holds in a 6.25%–6.60% range with intra‑day swings ±10–15 bps.
- Upside risk: Hot PCE or strong Jobs → quick pop toward ~6.6%–6.9%.
- Downside surprise: Cool PCE + soft Jobs → drift toward ~6.10%–6.25%.
Action
- Closing ≤30 days: LOCK.
- 31–60 days: Lock with float‑down or partial‑lock ahead of PCE.
- >60 days: Staggered/partial; reassess post‑Jobs.
Mid‑Term Outlook (6–12 Weeks)
- If inflation continues to glide and unemployment edges up → ~5.95%–6.40% by late Q4.
- If inflation re‑accelerates or growth re‑firms → 6.40%–6.90% with chop.
Bottom Line on Locking
- Near‑term closings / tight budgets: LOCK TODAY (protect against hot PCE/Jobs).
- Flexible timelines / refi shoppers: You can wait through Friday’s PCE—set a hard trigger and be execution‑ready.
Contact & Channels
| Website | therateupdate.com |
|---|---|
| YouTube | @DanFrio |
| dan.frio@gmail.com | |
| Phone | (844) 775‑5626 |
*Estimates are informational, not a commitment to lend. Pricing varies by credit profile, LTV, points, lock period, and market conditions.