Monday, September 15, 2025 • Prepared for Dan Frio
| Day / Time (ET) | Release | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon • 8:30a | Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep) | Gauge of factory activity — signals growth momentum. |
| Tue • 8:30a | Retail Sales (Aug) + Import Prices | Consumer spending health + trade inflation. |
| Wed • 2:00p | FOMC Decision + SEP (dot‑plot) | Biggest event of the week; path for rates and mortgage markets. |
| Thu • 8:30a | Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims; Philly Fed | Labor softness could weigh on yields; manufacturing check‑in. |
| Fri • 10:00a | Leading Economic Indicators | Composite signal on growth heading into Q4. |
Sticky shelter inflation vs. softening labor creates a tricky setup for the FOMC. The SEP / dot‑plot and statement language will drive 10‑yr UST and UMBS direction — and your lock/float decision.
| Measure | Last | Consensus | Rate Update | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI MoM (Aug) | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| CPI YoY (Aug) | +2.7% | +2.9% | +2.8% | +2.9% |
| Core CPI MoM (Aug) | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| Core CPI YoY (Aug) | +3.1% | +3.1% | +3.0% | +3.1% |
| PPI MoM (Aug) | +0.9% | +0.3% | +0.5% | -0.1% |
| PPI YoY (Aug) | +3.3% | +3.1% | +3.4% | +2.6% |
| Initial Claims (k) | 236 | 235 | — | 263 |
| Continuing Claims (M) | 1.90 | 1.90 | — | 1.939 |
Takeaway: Headline CPI ran hot; consensus closer on YoY; Rate Update matched Core MoM. PPI cooled; claims surprised higher.
Base Case: CPI near 3%, Fed cautious → 10‑yr UST ~4.0%, UMBS 5.5 ~101‑102 → national 30‑yr fixed ~6.25–6.40%. Bias: Neutral.
Soft Scenario: Dovish SEP + soft retail/claims → UST <3.9%, UMBS rally → rates ~6.1–6.2%. Bias: Float.
Hot Scenario: Hawkish SEP / sticky inflation → UST 4.3–4.5%, UMBS weaker → rates ~6.5%. Bias: Lock.
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