The Rate Update Weekly — Week of September 22, 2025

Helping homebuyers & homeowners understand real estate, mortgage products, and mortgage rates.

Breaking News Spotlight

Shutdown Watch & Rate Cut Pressure — Mortgage Rates at Multi‑Year Lows

Mortgage rates recently touched ~6.1–6.2% area (multi‑year low range).
Markets are balancing the Fed’s recent cut, looming government shutdown risk, and expectations for more easing.
Large managers signaling neutral/dovish on duration supports lower long‑end yields.

We’ll update links to official releases in Friday’s review once the week’s data posts.

Washington Watch — Government Shutdown Risk

Deadline: September 30, 2025
Base case: Short Continuing Resolution that averts a prolonged shutdown; brinkmanship likely.
Rates impact: Short shutdown risk can nudge UST yields lower via risk‑off, but MBS spreads may widen—net: volatile mortgage pricing.

This Week’s U.S. Macro Calendar (Key items)

Day	Release	Time (ET)	Why it matters for mortgage rates
Tue 9/23	Conference Board Consumer Confidence	10:00a	Higher confidence can lift yields if spending stays firm.
Wed 9/24	Durable Goods Orders	8:30a	Capex strength pressures long yields; weakness supports bonds.
Thu 9/25	Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims; New Home Sales	8:30a / 10:00a	Labor tightness pushes yields up; housing demand informs MBS sentiment.
Fri 9/26	PCE & Core PCE (Aug)	8:30a	Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; key for the 10‑yr UST and UMBS.

Day

Release

Time (ET)

Why it matters for mortgage rates

Tue 9/23

Conference Board Consumer Confidence

10:00a

Higher confidence can lift yields if spending stays firm.

Wed 9/24

Durable Goods Orders

8:30a

Capex strength pressures long yields; weakness supports bonds.

Thu 9/25

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims; New Home Sales

8:30a / 10:00a

Labor tightness pushes yields up; housing demand informs MBS sentiment.

Fri 9/26

PCE & Core PCE (Aug)

8:30a

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; key for the 10‑yr UST and UMBS.

We cross‑verify times/consensus via BEA/BLS/Census, Bloomberg, CNBC, and Yahoo Finance.

Rate Update Forecast — PCE (Aug)

Measure	Last	Consensus	Rate Update Forecast
Headline PCE MoM	+0.2%	+0.2%	+0.22%
Headline PCE YoY	2.7%	2.7%	2.6–2.7%
Core PCE MoM	+0.2%	+0.2%	+0.20%
Core PCE YoY	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%

Measure

Last

Consensus

Rate Update Forecast

Headline PCE MoM

+0.2%

+0.22%

Headline PCE YoY

2.7%

2.6–2.7%

Core PCE MoM

+0.2%

+0.20%

Core PCE YoY

2.9%

Adjustment for shutdown risk: slight downward tilt vs base case, especially on core services.

Mortgage Market Playbook

HOT PCE: 10‑yr UST toward 4.25%; UMBS 5.5 weaker; Bias: LOCK.
BASELINE: 10‑yr UST ~4.00–4.10%; UMBS steady; Bias: NEUTRAL.
SOFT: 10‑yr UST ~3.90%; UMBS stronger; Bias: FLOAT (selectively).

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