The Rate Update: Will a Longer Government Shutdown Push Mortgage Rates Higher or Lower?”

The Rate Update: Will a Longer Government Shutdown Push Mortgage Rates Higher or Lower?”

Weekly Newsletter

The Rate Update with Dan Frio — Oct 6, 2025

Markets on Pause — Government Shutdown, PCE path, and Mortgage Rates

Market Dashboard

10‑Year U.S. Treasury
4.11%
Modestly higher week-over-week
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
101.9
Softer on risk and cuts pricing
UMBS 30‑yr (5.5%)
99.53
Slightly firmer tone
Avg. 30‑yr Mortgage
6.33%
Flat to slightly lower

Source mix: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and market commentary as of publish time.

Shutdown Shockwave: What Clients Should Know

  • The federal government shutdown is still in effect, suspending official data from BLS, BEA & Census.
  • White House estimates: each week may trim GDP and lift unemployment; Treasury warns of broader damage.
  • Rating risk and safe‑haven flows are in focus: gold strong, dollar softer, modest bid for Treasuries.

Mortgage Take: Short shutdowns typically support bonds (lower yields). But if it drags past two weeks, credit premia and liquidity risks can push mortgage rates up even as growth slows.

This Week’s Economic Calendar (Bloomberg)

Mon 10/6
UST T‑Bill Auctions (13‑ & 26‑week) — supply tone for rates.
Tue 10/7
International Trade (Aug) government shutdown — would steer GDP trackers.
Wed 10/8
FOMC Minutes (Sep) — watch inflation vs growth language.
Thu 10/9
Initial & Continuing Claims government shutdown — weekly labor heat check.
Fri 10/10
Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (prelim Oct) — inflation expectations that matter for bonds/MBS.

Heads-up: CPI (Sep) is on Wed Oct 15 and PPI (Sep) Thu Oct 16 — both may slip if the shutdown persists.

Mortgage Rate Playbook

Scenario10‑yr USTUMBS 30‑yrBias
Base (short shutdown)3.95–4.10%FirmerFloat carefully
Extended shutdown (>2 wks)4.10–4.30%WeakerLock on rallies
Dovish Fed / soft PCE< 3.95%StrongerFloat short‑term

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