1) This Week’s Mortgage Rate Update
Current averages and movement versus last week. (Use your live dashboards during the show.)
2) Inflation Watch — PCE Spotlight
MoM: 0.3%
MoM: 0.2% • Ex‑food & energy
- Shelter (rent/OER) remains a sticky driver; housing services weigh ~15% of PCE.
- Energy is volatile; it shapes headline but is excluded from core.
- Takeaway: August came in in‑line; supports a cautious Fed, no new hawkish shock.
3) Coming Up — High‑Impact U.S. Data
| Date | Time (ET) | Release / Event | What to watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Sep 30, 2025 | 10:00 AM ET | JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) | Openings & quits → labor tightness | Hot = stickier services inflation |
| Wed Oct 1, 2025 | 7:15 AM ET | ADP Private Payrolls (Sep) | Private job growth & pay | Strong = yields up; Weak = dovish |
| Wed Oct 1, 2025 | 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | Prices-paid & employment | Prices-paid >55 worries bonds |
| Thu Oct 2, 2025 | 8:30 AM ET | Initial Jobless Claims | 4-week trend | Higher claims = softer labor |
| Fri Oct 3, 2025 | 8:30 AM ET | Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) | Jobs, U-rate, AHE | AHE ≥0.4% m/m = services risk |
| Fri Oct 3, 2025 | 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI (Sep) | Services prices & jobs | Core-PCE sensitive |
Watch wages, prices‑paid, and labor slack for how they feed into core‑services and PCE.
Special Section — Government Shutdown Risk & Mortgage Rates
Why it matters: A federal funding lapse can hit markets in three ways that filter into mortgage rates.
- Data blackout / delays. Some agencies pause or delay releases (e.g., certain labor & inflation reports). Less visibility tends to increase rate volatility and risk premiums.
- Risk sentiment & Treasury moves. Headlines can lift uncertainty premia. In short shutdowns, investors often demand a bit more yield for holding risk → Treasury yields can drift higher and mortgage rates may tick up. In longer standoffs, safe‑haven flows can intermittently push yields lower but mortgage spreads often widen.
- Operational frictions. FHA/VA case processing may slow; IRS income transcript (4506‑C) turn times can stretch; verifications/back‑office checks can delay closings.
A short shutdown tends to produce higher volatility, slightly wider MBS spreads, and a mild upward nudge to mortgage rates vs. otherwise.
Yields can whip around: safe‑haven bids vs. risk premia. Net effect often sticky spreads and choppier day‑to‑day rate quotes.
Tactical takeaway: If you’re inside 30 days of closing, consider locking into strength. If you’re 45–90 days out, float cautiously with alerts set for labor & ISM surprises.
🎥 Featured Video — This Week’s Market Update
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5) TRU Forecast — Lock or Float?
- Short‑term (this week): Rates likely range‑bound into Friday’s jobs report.
Lock If you’re closing within 30 days — payroll volatility + shutdown risk can whipsaw rates. - Mid‑term (next 2–3 months): If labor cools and services inflation eases, the path to cuts improves.
Float cautiously If closing in 45–90 days — set alerts for JOLTS, ADP, NFP, ISM Services. - Long‑term (into 2026): Gradual disinflation + slower growth could pull Treasury yields lower, improving affordability and refi math.
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