Weekly Mortgage Update – Will Rates Keep Dropping or Stabilize?

📉 Mortgage rates are stuck in the mid-6% range — will they drop or stay put? In this week’s update, I break down the Fed’s signals, key economic data, and whether you should lock or float your rate now.

Mortgage Outlook

📉 Mortgage Rate Forecast — Drop or Stabilize?

30‑year fixed rates are hovering in the mid‑6% range. Most forecasters expect rates to stabilize near current levels through 2025, with a chance for a modest drift lower into 2026 if inflation cools and the Fed continues easing. Key hinge points: inflation (CPI/PCE), jobs, and the 10‑year Treasury.

Timeframe	Consensus	TRU Forecast
Q4 2025	~6.3%	6.2–6.4%
Mid 2026	~6.0–6.2%	5.9–6.2%
End 2026	5.8–6.0%	5.8–6.1%

Forecasts are not guarantees. Your pricing varies by credit, LTV, loan type & market conditions.

🎯 Get Rate Watch Alerts 📈 Mortgage Rates (LIVE)💹 MBS (LIVE)

This Week’s Data That Matters

🗓️ What To Watch & What It Means

CPI / PCE Inflation— Cooling = support for lower rates; upside surprise = pressure higher.

Jobs Report— Softer hiring & rising unemployment generally help push rates lower.

10‑Year Treasury— A falling yield often leads mortgage rates down; spikes can lift them.

GDP & Retail Sales— Hot growth can keep inflation sticky, slowing any rate declines.

Lock or Float?

Closing <= 30 days: Consider locking to reduce risk.

Closing 31–90 days: Float with a plan — enroll in Rate Watch to capture dips.

Ask about float‑down and renegotiation options with your lender.

Dollar & Long-Term Rates

💵 Dollar Watch (DXY) → Inflation & 10‑Year

A stronger dollar can dampen import prices and sometimes relieve inflation pressure; a weaker dollar can do the opposite. We pair DXY with the 10‑Year Treasury yield to monitor the path for mortgage rates.

Open DXY Chart Open 10‑Year Yield Chart

▶️ Watch: Mortgage Rates — What’s Next?

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Connect

👋 Work with Dan Frio

Email: Dan@therateupdate.com

Website: TheRateUpdate.com

YouTube: @TheRateUpdate

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Weekly Mortgage Update – Will Rates Keep Dropping or Stabilize?

📉 Mortgage rates are stuck in the mid-6% range — will they drop or stay put? In this week’s update, I break down the Fed’s signals, key economic data, and whether you should lock or float your rate now.

The Rate Update • Weekly Mortgage & Markets Snapshot

📉 Mortgage Rate Forecast — Drop or Stabilize?

🗓️ What To Watch & What It Means

Lock or Float?

💵 Dollar Watch (DXY) → Inflation & 10‑Year

▶️ Watch: Mortgage Rates — What’s Next?

👋 Work with Dan Frio

Let us help you!