📰Headline of the Day

“Rate-Cut Odds Double After Fed’s John Williams Hints At a ‘Near-Term Adjustment’.”

What Williams Said (Big Story)

• New York Fed President John Williams said he still sees “room for a further adjustment in the near term” to bring policy toward neutral.
• After his remarks, markets repriced the odds of a 25 bps cut in December to roughly 3 out of 4, up from below 40% the day before.
• Williams is not usually the most dovish voice on the committee, so when he signals room to cut, markets pay close attention.

🏛️Updated Fed Voting Breakdown (Last ~40 Days)

🟢 Likely YES – Cut 25 bps

• John Williams (NY) — Explicitly talked about “room for further adjustment in the near term.”
• Christopher Waller (Gov.) — Recent speech: “The Case for Continuing Rate Cuts.”
• Michelle Bowman (Gov.) — Now emphasizing labor-market risk; supportive of additional easing.
• Stephen Miran (Gov.) — Wanted a 50 bps cut at the last meeting; will vote yes on 25 bps.
• Lisa Cook (Gov.) — Increasingly focused on cooling labor data; comfortable with another cut if inflation stays tame.

🟡 Leaning YES / True Swing Votes

• Jerome Powell (Chair) — Says a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion,” but acknowledges growing labor-market risk.
• Philip Jefferson (Vice Chair) — Wants to move “slowly,” but open to more easing if incoming data stay soft.

🔴 Lean HOLD – Prefer No Further Cut in December

• Michael Barr (Gov.) — Worried that inflation progress could stall; favors caution.
• Susan Collins (Boston) — Described policy as “appropriate for now,” signaling preference to hold.
• Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) — Uneasy about cutting again without firmer data; consistently urges a go-slow approach.
• Alberto Musalem (St. Louis) — Says recent cuts were “insurance” and warns about moving too fast from here.
• Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City) — Dissented against the last cut; one of the more hawkish voices on the committee.

📊 If the Meeting Were Today…

• YES to Cut (7) — Williams, Waller, Bowman, Miran, Cook, Powell*, Jefferson*
• NO / Hold (5) — Barr, Collins, Goolsbee, Musalem, Schmid

📉Mortgage Rate Impact

Today’s Mortgage Rate Snapshot (Fill In Before You Go Live)

📆This Week in Review – Markets & the Fed

Monday–Tuesday

• Mixed economic data signaled a slowing but not crashing economy.
• Stocks stayed choppy as investors weighed shutdown delays in official data.
• Bonds caught a small bid, pulling mortgage rates modestly lower from recent highs.

Wednesday – Fed Minutes

• Minutes highlighted just how divided the Fed is on the pace of further cuts.
• Some officials argued they’ve “done enough,” others worried about the labor market cooling too fast.
• Markets walked back some expectations for a December cut, and rates leveled off.

Thursday

• Odds of another December cut dropped below 40% at one point.
• Stocks sold off on worries the Fed might pause easing despite slowing growth.
• Mortgage rates moved sideways amid intraday volatility in bonds.

Friday – Williams Flips the Script

• Williams talked about “room for further adjustment in the near term.”
• Rate-cut odds quickly jumped back toward the 70–75% range.
• Bond yields fell and mortgage rates improved to close out the week.

🔮Where Markets Go From Here

• Markets are now pricing a December cut as “more likely than not,” but not guaranteed.
• If upcoming data — especially inflation and growth — remain soft, pressure will build on the Fed to follow through with another 25 bps cut.
• If data surprise to the upside, expect a quick backup in yields and a move higher in mortgage rates as traders price in a pause.

📅Next Week Preview – Key Events (Mon–Wed)

Week of November 24, 2025 — Focus on delayed inflation and growth data that markets have been craving.

📌 Monday, November 24 – Quiet but Sensitive

• No major government data releases scheduled due to the recent shutdown and rescheduling of reports.
• Markets will trade mostly on:
  • Weekend retail/holiday headlines (pre–Black Friday spending chatter).
  • Any surprise Fed comments or interviews.
  • Positioning ahead of Tuesday’s heavy data slate.
• Talking point: “Monday is about positioning — bonds are bracing for a flood of data the rest of the week.”

📌 Tuesday, November 25 – PPI + Housing + Confidence

• 8:30 am ET – Producer Price Index (PPI) for September (delayed)
  • Wholesale inflation gauge that feeds into future consumer prices.
  • After the shutdown, this is one of the first clean looks at price pressures upstream.
  • If PPI comes in soft: supports lower yields and better mortgage rates.
  • If PPI pops higher: markets may question how aggressive the Fed can be with more cuts.
• 9:00–10:00 am ET – Housing & Sentiment Cluster
  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Sep, delayed)
  • Pending Home Sales (Oct, delayed)
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov)
  • For your show: tie home prices + pending sales directly to buyers’ monthly payments and rate sensitivity.
• Talking point: “Tuesday is our first real inflation read in weeks, plus housing and confidence — this is a big day for bonds and mortgage rates.”

📌 Wednesday, November 26 – GDP + PCE (The Big One)

• 8:30 am ET – U.S. GDP, Q3 (Second Estimate)
  • Confirms how strong or weak growth really was going into the shutdown period.
  • Weaker revision: strengthens the case for more easing.
  • Stronger revision: gives hawks ammo to argue against another cut.
• 8:30 am ET – PCE Price Index & Core PCE (Delayed)
  • The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
  • Soft core PCE: makes a December cut very hard to argue against.
  • Sticky or hotter core PCE: could push Powell and Jefferson closer to “hold.”
• Other Wednesday releases
  • Advance Durable Goods Orders (Sep, delayed) — signals business investment.
  • Regional Fed surveys and financial conditions indexes that color the growth/inflation story.
• Talking point: “Wednesday is the Super Bowl for the bond market: GDP plus the Fed’s favorite inflation report on the same morning.”