Mortgage rates climbed again this morning, pushing the 30-year to its highest level in about 11 months. The move is coming from outside the housing world entirely — oil prices spiking on Middle East tensions and bond yields following them higher. Here's what's happening and what it means for you.
Oil prices jumped past $90 a barrel this morning as tensions escalate around tanker attacks in the Red Sea, with ripple effects across financial markets.
Shares of Tesla and Alphabet slid in premarket trading after both companies flagged rising AI infrastructure spending, unsettling investors ahead of the open.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.7% overnight — its highest point since January 2025 — and that's the main driver behind today's mortgage rate move.
| Loan Program | Today's Rate | vs. Last Week |
| Conventional 30-Year Fixed | 6.770% | ▲ +0.130 |
| FHA 30-Year Fixed | 6.350% | ▲ +0.080 |
| VA 30-Year Fixed | 6.370% | ▲ +0.080 |
| Jumbo 30-Year Fixed | 6.900% | ▲ +0.070 |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.230% | ▲ +0.050 |
| 7/6 ARM | 6.550% | ▲ +0.250 |
Rates shown are today's published estimates on a $400K loan balance, for informational purposes only.
There's a 10-year Treasury note auction at noon today — auctions like this can move rates in either direction depending on investor demand, so it's worth watching if you're timing a rate lock.
Tomorrow brings the June New Home Sales report, which is expected to show a still-sluggish housing market given where rates sit.
The bigger event is next week: the Fed's rate decision on July 28–29. Markets are overwhelmingly betting on another hold — no cut, no hike — so don't expect the Fed itself to move rates much either way in the near term.
If you're house hunting, today's rate move is a reminder that this isn't really about the housing market — it's oil prices and global tension pushing yields up. That means it can reverse just as quickly as it appeared, but I wouldn't bank on a big drop this week. If you're close to the finish line on a home, it's worth having a real conversation about locking your rate rather than waiting to see what happens.
Your buyers are facing the highest rates in almost a year, and it's fair if some of them want to pause. But the honest message is that relief probably isn't arriving fast — the Fed meets in a week and markets are pricing almost no chance of a cut. If a buyer is on the fence, this is a good moment to help them understand that waiting for a rate drop isn't a strategy right now, it's a guess.
Bonds are having another rough day, and it's driven by oil and geopolitics, not domestic data — nothing on today's calendar changes that story. Keep an eye on the noon Treasury auction for the next signal, along with tomorrow's new home sales number and next week's Fed decision. Until something shifts the yield story, a lock-bias is the reasonable default.
