The Rate Update
Good morning! A ceasefire between the US and Iran is cooling oil prices and bond yields today, giving mortgage rates a modest break heading into this week's Federal Reserve meeting. Here's what's moving the market and what it means for you.
US-Iran ceasefire: The US and Iran have paused fighting to give peace talks room to work. Oil prices dropped nearly 6% today, and that's flowing through to lower Treasury yields.
Cooler economic data: June's Durable Goods Orders came in much softer than expected, which is generally a good sign for rates — it points to slower economic momentum and eases inflation worries.
Fed meeting starts tomorrow: The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting kicks off Tuesday, with the rate decision coming Wednesday afternoon.
| Loan Type | Today's Rate | Change Today |
| 30-Yr Conventional | 6.810% | ▼ -0.040 |
| 30-Yr FHA | 6.370% | ▼ -0.030 |
| 30-Yr VA | 6.390% | ▼ -0.030 |
| 30-Yr Jumbo | 6.900% | ▼ -0.020 |
| 15-Yr Conventional | 6.340% | ▲ +0.050 |
Rates are improving today but are still a bit higher than they were a week ago. Today's move looks like relief from the ceasefire news rather than a full trend change — something worth watching closely this week.
Today brought a couple of Treasury auctions and a cooler-than-expected reading on business orders. Tomorrow, the Fed's two-day meeting begins alongside a Consumer Confidence report.
The main event is Wednesday, July 29, when the Fed announces its rate decision at 2:00pm ET. Markets are currently leaning strongly toward the Fed holding rates steady, but that outlook can shift quickly — we'll have the latest for you on the show.
Today's ceasefire news gave rates a real, if modest, break — the 30-year is back down to 6.81%. It's a welcome dip, but it's a fragile one. The Fed meets this week, and any surprise in tone could push rates back up just as quickly. If a rate move like this puts you in a comfortable spot, it's worth talking to us about locking rather than waiting to see if it drops further.
Good news to share with your buyers today: rates eased alongside calmer geopolitical headlines and softer economic data. It's a nice window to re-engage anyone who's been sitting on the sidelines. Just keep expectations grounded — the Fed's decision on Wednesday could easily reset the mood, so this is a moment to act on, not a guarantee that stays open.
Bonds are having a genuinely good day — prices up, yields down, and the economic data leaning in our favor. It's a solid day to be locking clients who are ready to move. That said, don't get too comfortable: the broader outlook still has real odds of a rate hike later this year, so treat today's calm as an opportunity, not a new normal.
