Rates Rise Again as Oil Spikes on Middle East Tensions

U.S. strikes on Iran continued for an 11th straight night, with Secretary Rubio confirming the U.S. will keep protecting shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices jumped in response — Brent crude is trading near $95 a barrel — and that geopolitical risk is flowing straight into bond markets and, from there, into mortgage pricing.

Based on a $400K loan amount, principal & interest only. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.634% and rising, and mortgage-backed securities weakened again today — both pushing published rates higher.

Today's economic calendar is light — no major domestic data releases to speak of. The number that matters most right now is on the calendar for next week: the Federal Reserve's next rate decision lands July 28–29. Prediction markets are heavily favoring another hold (around 98% odds), so don't expect the Fed itself to move the needle much. The bigger swing factor over the next week is likely to keep being oil prices and the situation in the Middle East.

Rates have crept higher for five days in a row, and today's move is tied to oil and overseas tensions rather than anything the Fed did. The Fed's next meeting isn't until July 29, and the market isn't expecting a cut there either, so I wouldn't count on relief arriving soon. If you're actively shopping for a home, this is a good week to have a real conversation about locking your rate rather than waiting on the sidelines for a dip that may not come quickly.

Affordability is getting squeezed a little more each day this week, and it's worth having that conversation proactively with buyers rather than letting rate headlines catch them off guard. The good news: this move is being driven by oil and geopolitics, not the Fed, so it doesn't necessarily reflect a change in the broader economic outlook. Remind your clients that today's rate isn't locked in until it's actually locked — timing still matters.

Every program moved higher today — conventional, FHA, VA, jumbo, and 15-year all worsened, with the 7/6 ARM seeing the biggest jump. This is a bond-market and oil story, not a domestic-data story, and today's calendar is quiet. With the Fed on hold until July 29 and heavy odds against a cut, this is a good week to lean into locking clients rather than floating through more headline risk.