Good morning! Rates are actually holding a little better than they were a week ago, even with some noisy headlines out of Washington and overseas. Here's what's moving the market today and what it means for you.
Three Federal Reserve officials who voted against this week's rate hold spoke up again today, making the case for a rate hike to fight inflation. It's a reminder that the door isn't closed on rates moving higher, even though the Fed held steady this week.
Oil prices climbed nearly 2% (to $85.16) on rising tensions in the Middle East — worth watching, since energy costs feed directly into inflation.
Meanwhile, stocks are rallying hard this morning on strong earnings from Amazon, even as Apple pulled back on cautious guidance — a mixed picture for the broader economy.
Published market rates today, based on a $400K loan amount:
| Loan Type | Today's Rate | Vs. Last Week |
| Conventional 30-Yr Fixed | 6.770% | -0.080% |
| FHA 30-Yr Fixed | 6.330% | -0.070% |
| VA 30-Yr Fixed | 6.340% | -0.080% |
| Jumbo 30-Yr Fixed | 6.900% | -0.020% |
| Conventional 15-Yr Fixed | 6.310% | +0.020% |
| 7/6 ARM | 6.330% | -0.220% |
Rates shown are market snapshots as of this morning and are not a commitment to lend — your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan details.
Two consumer sentiment reports land at 10am ET this morning, which could add a little midday movement to rates. Markets are closed tomorrow (Saturday), so no new data until next week.
The big date to circle: Friday, August 7, when the July jobs report comes out. Jobs reports are one of the biggest rate-moving events each month, so expect more volatility heading into it.
Here's some good news: rates are actually a little better than they were a week ago. But don't read that as a sign they'll keep falling — several Fed officials are still pushing hard for a hike, so there's real risk rates could bounce back up just as easily. If today's rate fits your budget, it's a reasonable time to lock rather than wait and hope for something better.
Mortgage bonds dipped a bit today as this morning's stock rally pulled yields up off their overnight lows, but the week-over-week trend still favors us. Keep an eye on the 10am sentiment data for a possible midday wobble, and use the week ahead to get rate-sensitive borrowers locked before next Friday's jobs report shakes things up.
Affordability has held steady to slightly better over the last week, which is a nice window for buyers who've been on the sidelines. That said, Fed officials pushing for a hike and rising oil prices both carry upside risk for rates — it may be worth encouraging ready buyers to act now rather than bet on a dip that isn't guaranteed.
