Mortgage rates ticked up again this morning — even after a batch of cooler-than-expected economic data landed at 8:30am. The bigger story continues to be this week's Federal Reserve meeting, where a rare three-way dissent kept bond yields elevated. Here's what's actually happening and what it means for you.
Fed's hawkish hold still rippling. The Fed held its key rate steady at 3.50–3.75% this week, but three regional Fed presidents actually voted for a hike instead — a notably contentious split under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who called it a "good family fight."
Stocks whipsawed. The Dow dropped over 1,100 points on the day of the Fed decision before bouncing back this morning, led by strength in big tech names.
Geopolitical tension keeps oil in focus. Ongoing tension involving Iran and reports of an attack on shipping in the Mediterranean are keeping energy prices — and inflation risk — on the radar.
| Program | Today's Rate | Vs. Yesterday |
| Conventional 30-Yr | 6.780% | ▲ +0.020 |
| FHA 30-Yr | 6.340% | ▲ +0.020 |
| VA 30-Yr | 6.360% | ▲ +0.020 |
| Jumbo 30-Yr | 6.900% | ▲ +0.010 |
| 15-Yr Fixed | 6.320% | ▲ +0.010 |
| 7/6 ARM | 6.340% | — Flat |
Rates are modestly higher again today. Cooler-than-expected growth and inflation data this morning gave a little support, but bond yields remain elevated in the wake of this week's Fed meeting.
This morning's inflation and growth data (Core PCE and GDP) both came in cooler than expected — a small positive sign after a tense week for the bond market.
Tomorrow brings the Employment Cost Index and the final Consumer Sentiment reading, both worth watching for confirmation of today's cooling trend. Looking further out, the next jobs report lands Friday, August 7.
Rates crept up a bit today, even though this morning's economic data came in cooler than expected. The takeaway: don't expect a smooth ride down. Volatility like this week's has been cutting both ways, so if you see a rate you like on a morning like today, that's often a better moment to lock than waiting for something better that may not come.
Affordability pressure isn't going away overnight — this week's Fed meeting showed real disagreement about where rates should head next. But this morning's cooler data is a small crack of good news that could build toward relief if the trend continues. Keep your buyers pre-approved and ready to move: good-rate windows have been showing up on data-heavy mornings and closing fast.
Internal disagreement at the Fed plus a new chair still finding his communication style points to more volatility ahead, not less. Watch tomorrow's Employment Cost Index for the next signal, and lean toward float-down or short-lock strategies for clients closing in the next two to three weeks.
