Good morning! Overnight news out of the Middle East is shaping up to be the story for rates today: Trump called off planned strikes on Iran, oil prices dropped nearly 7%, and bond markets are rallying on the relief. Here's what that means heading into your morning.
Iran de-escalation: Trump called off planned strikes on Iran overnight, and futures markets jumped in response — the Dow was up roughly 500 points, and oil prices fell almost 7% on the news.
Yen intervention: The U.S. and Japan confirmed they're coordinating to support the Japanese yen, with room to do more if needed.
Yields sliding: The 10-year Treasury yield — one of the biggest drivers of mortgage rates — fell to roughly 4.67–4.68% this morning as investors moved away from riskier bets tied to the Iran conflict.
| Loan Type | Today's Rate | Weekly Trend |
| Conventional 30-Yr | 6.830% | ▲ +0.020 |
| FHA 30-Yr | 6.340% | ▼ -0.030 |
| VA 30-Yr | 6.360% | ▼ -0.030 |
| Jumbo 30-Yr | 6.910% | ▲ +0.010 |
| 7/6 ARM | 6.370% | ▼ -0.020 |
| 15-Yr Fixed | 6.320% | ▼ -0.020 |
Rates ticked up slightly overnight, but that snapshot was taken before this morning's Iran news broke. Bond prices and yields have since improved on the de-escalation — that relief hasn't fully worked its way into published rates yet.
Today: ISM Manufacturing PMI hits at 10am ET (forecast 54.0) — a widely-watched read on factory activity that can move rates quickly if it surprises in either direction.
Tomorrow: A busy morning of data including Factory Orders, Durable Goods, and JOLTS Job Openings, all landing around 10am ET.
If you've been watching rates and feeling a little discouraged, this morning's news is a genuinely encouraging sign. The overnight de-escalation with Iran is easing some of the fear that's been keeping rates elevated, and bond markets are already responding. It hasn't fully shown up in today's published rates yet, but it's the kind of shift worth paying attention to over the next few days. If you're actively shopping, keep in close touch with your loan officer this week.
One of the biggest headwinds pushing rates higher lately has been geopolitical uncertainty and its ripple effect on oil and inflation fears. This morning's de-escalation chips away at that. If the calm holds, it could translate into modestly better rates in the days ahead — worth a quick, low-pressure mention to buyers who've been sitting on the sidelines near 7%.
Mortgage bonds are rallying this morning on the Iran headlines, but that can turn on a dime. ISM Manufacturing PMI and its Prices Paid component land at 10am ET, and a hot inflation surprise there could erase this morning's gains just as fast as they showed up. Worth checking pricing again right after that release before locking in client conversations.
