The three-market snapshot
| Market indicator | Feb. 27 Pre-conflict close | March 25 Conflict checkpoint | July 31 Latest available | Change vs. pre-conflict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury Fed-policy expectations | 3.38% | 3.84% | 4.26%* | +88 basis points |
| 10-year Treasury Key mortgage-rate benchmark | 3.97% | 4.33% | 4.67%* | +70 basis points |
| WTI crude oil Inflation and energy signal | $66.96 | $91.51 | $84.15* | +$17.19 / +25.7% |
*July 31 readings are intraday market quotes. The latest official Treasury close available was July 30: 2-year 4.23% and 10-year 4.68%. Oil prices can move materially throughout the session.
2-year Treasury move
10-year Treasury move
WTI oil move
Visual comparison
2-year Treasury
10-year Treasury
WTI crude oil
What this means for mortgage rates
Near-term rate signal: unfavorable
- The 10-year Treasury is about 70 basis points above its pre-conflict level.
- Oil remains roughly 26% higher, increasing inflation risk.
- The 2-year yield says markets expect monetary policy to remain restrictive.
- These forces make a major mortgage-rate decline harder without softer inflation, weaker employment or de-escalation.
Housing-system signal: positive
- Freddie Mac earned $3.8 billion in Q2 and increased net worth to $77.8 billion.
- It financed 306,000 single-family mortgages, including 97,000 first-time-buyer purchases.
- A stronger GSE supports liquidity and continued access to conventional mortgage credit.
- This supports stability, but it does not directly reduce a borrower’s interest rate.
Freddie Mac: read beyond the headline
Client-ready talking point
What to watch next
Oil below $80
A sustained decline would reduce some energy-driven inflation pressure.
10-year below 4.25%
A meaningful Treasury rally would create a better backdrop for mortgage pricing.
MBS spreads
Mortgage rates can improve further if agency mortgage-backed securities outperform Treasuries.
Sources and methodology
Treasury yields: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Feb. 27: 2-year 3.38%, 10-year 3.97%. March 25: 2-year 3.84%, 10-year 4.33%. July 30 official close: 2-year 4.23%, 10-year 4.68%. July 31 intraday quotes: 2-year approximately 4.256%, 10-year approximately 4.669%.
Oil: U.S. Energy Information Administration Cushing, Oklahoma WTI spot series for Feb. 27 ($66.96) and March 25 ($91.51). July 31 uses the intraday WTI front-month market quote ($84.15), because the EIA daily spot series is released with a lag.
Conflict date: Reuters and the UK House of Commons Library identify February 28, 2026 as the beginning of the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran.
Freddie Mac: Q2 2026 earnings figures summarized by HousingWire from Freddie Mac’s quarterly results.
U.S. Treasury data · EIA WTI data · Reuters conflict timeline · Freddie Mac earnings coverage