The Rate Update with Dan Frio
Good morning! Stocks are set to open sharply higher today after word broke that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached with Iran as soon as today or tomorrow. Oil prices are dropping, futures are jumping, and — maybe surprisingly — mortgage rates are holding steady to slightly better this morning too. Here's what's actually happening and what it means for you.
Hormuz deal hopes: Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal with Iran allowing "freedom of movement" through the Strait of Hormuz could land today or tomorrow. Oil prices fell about 3%, and stock futures jumped sharply on the news.
Big earnings week: Several major companies (Palantir, Pfizer, Merck, McDonald's) beat expectations and raised guidance this morning, adding to the positive mood on Wall Street.
Treasury yields easing: The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down slightly on the de-escalation news — a small positive for mortgage pricing.
| Program | Rate | Change |
| 30-Year Fixed (Conventional) | 6.82% | Slightly better |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.32% | Unchanged |
| FHA 30-Year | 6.33% | Slightly better |
| VA 30-Year | 6.35% | Slightly better |
Rates shown are a market snapshot as of this morning and can move throughout the day. Your actual rate depends on your credit profile, loan amount, and other factors — reach out for a personalized quote.
Today: Job Openings data (JOLTS) releases at 10am ET — a moderate market mover.
Tomorrow: ISM Services PMI, a report that often moves rates.
This Friday: The July jobs report — the single biggest data point of the week. Expect some rate movement around this release either way.
Here's some good news: even with the stock market having a great morning, mortgage rates aren't moving against you. That's because today's rally is being driven by easing tensions overseas, not by a booming economy — and those two things affect rates very differently. If you're actively shopping, today's calm is a reasonably comfortable window. Just keep an eye on Friday — the jobs report tends to be the report that shakes things up, so if you're close to locking, it may be worth having that conversation before the week is out.
Mortgage rates are essentially flat this week, hovering in the mid-6% to high-6% range depending on the loan program. Meanwhile, the broader mood on Wall Street is upbeat this morning on diplomacy headlines. That combination — steady rates plus improving news — is a nice talking point for buyers who've been sitting on the fence. It's worth reminding clients that rate stability, even without a big drop, still means predictable payments while they shop. Friday's jobs report is the next data point worth watching together.
Worth flagging for clients: mortgage bonds are actually having a good day even as stocks rally hard, which isn't the usual pattern. That's because today's stock move is tied to an oil and geopolitical story rather than stronger economic growth, so bond markets aren't getting hurt the way they normally would. Today's data (Job Openings at 10am) is low-stakes, but tomorrow's ISM Services report and Friday's jobs report are the two releases worth watching closely and having pricing ready to move on.
