The Rate Update with Dan Frio
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 · Dan Frio · Licensed Mortgage Loan Officer · NMLS #246527
Good morning. Here's the bottom line: a typical 30-year conventional mortgage is estimated at 7.50% this morning. That's about a third of a point higher than a week ago. The main driver is the 10-year Treasury yield, which sits near 5.25%, close to its highest level since 2007, as the bond market digests this month's Federal Reserve rate hike and prepares for several big economic reports this week. Here's what's moving and what it means for you.
Bond yields are holding near 19-year highs. The 10-year Treasury is around 5.25% and the 30-year around 5.58%. Mortgage rates follow these closely, which is why rates have climbed all week.
A shake-up in how credit scores are used for mortgages. Shares of FICO, the credit-score company, fell about 21% this morning on reports that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will move to a single pricing approach that also includes VantageScore. The details are still coming out. It won't change anyone's rate today, but it's worth watching if you're planning a purchase next year.
Oil is a little lower, at about $91 a barrel. That helps the inflation outlook a bit, but it hasn't moved mortgage rates today.
Published estimates as of 9:50 AM ET. The weekly column shows how much each rate has moved over the past week.
| Loan Type | Today's Rate | 1-Week Change |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Conventional | 7.500% | +0.310 |
| 30-Year FHA | 7.170% | +0.360 |
| 30-Year VA | 7.190% | +0.360 |
| 30-Year Jumbo | 7.560% | +0.210 |
| 7/6 ARM | 6.850% | +0.110 |
| 15-Year Fixed | 7.120% | +0.290 |
Mortgage bonds opened higher this morning and then gave back those gains, so the trend going into today's data is slightly worse.
Today, 10:00 AM ET: Job openings (JOLTS) and the Consumer Confidence Index. Both give a read on how strong the job market and the consumer really are.
Tomorrow, 8:30 AM ET: GDP and the PCE inflation report. PCE is the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely, which makes it the week's most important report for mortgage rates.
Thursday: Weekly jobless claims and a manufacturing survey. Friday, 8:30 AM ET: The September jobs report.
Next Fed meeting: October 28.
Rates are higher than they were last week. A 30-year conventional loan is around 7.50% today, which is roughly $2,530 a month in principal and interest on a $400,000 loan. That's a real number you can plan around. If you're already under contract, the most useful thing you can do this week is talk with your loan officer about locking your rate before tomorrow morning's inflation report. That report could move rates either way, and it's better to decide on your terms than to react after the fact.
Every fixed-rate program is higher than a week ago, and FHA and VA rose the most, about 0.36%. Those loans are how many first-time buyers get into a home, so expect a few more payment conversations this week. One bright spot: the 7/6 ARM at 6.85% held steady today. For buyers who expect to move or refinance within seven years, it may be worth a conversation with their lender. With big reports tomorrow and Friday, keep your buyers' timelines tight and their lenders in the loop.
Mortgage bonds opened higher and slipped back toward the day's lows ahead of the 10 AM data, and the 10-year is around 5.25%. The risk of a reprice is real today and again tomorrow at 8:30 with PCE, so make sure clients with near-term closings know where they stand. Also stay on top of the credit-score news. If Fannie and Freddie are moving to a single pricing grid that includes VantageScore, clients will have questions, and it helps to have the facts ready before they ask.
Rates shown are published market estimates as of 9:50 AM ET on September 29, 2026. They're for educational purposes only and aren't a loan offer or commitment to lend. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, property, points, fees and other factors. Market data can change throughout the day.
This is not financial advice. Dan Frio, Licensed Mortgage Loan Officer, NMLS #246527, PBT Bancorp NMLS #257781.
