165,000 Jobs! Why Didn't Mortgage Rates Rise? CPI & PPI Are Next

Mortgage rates today: October added 165,000 jobs, nearly triple the forecast, yet the 30-year fixed held at 7.17%, its lowest in a month. Tuesday's CPI and Friday's PPI decide what comes next before the Fed's December 9 decision. Here's the week ahead day by day and what it means for your payment on a $400K loan.

October added 165,000 jobs, yet mortgage rates held at 7.17%. Here is this week's calendar and what CPI could do to your payment.

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30-yr fixed (MND)

7.17%

▼ 0.39 in a month

10-yr Treasury

4.85%

Fri: ~4.87% after jobs

Fed funds

3.75–4.00%

Next decision Dec 9

Dec hike odds

~77%

CME FedWatch, Nov 6

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165,000 Jobs! Why Didn't Mortgage Rates Rise? CPI & PPI Are Next

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01 Where rates stand going into the week

Mortgage News Daily's index held the 30-year fixed at 7.17% on Friday, the same as Thursday, even after October payrolls came in at 165,000 against forecasts near 60,000–70,000, with unemployment dipping to 4.1%. Treasury yields rose on the report, but lenders didn't reprice higher. That leaves rates at their lowest level in about a month.

MND 30-yr fixed rate index, daily, Oct 9–Nov 6, 2026.

Takeaway: rates have dropped from 7.48% to 7.17% in four weeks, and a hot jobs report couldn't push them back up. That puts the pressure on Tuesday's CPI.

02 The week at a glance (times Central)

Mon

Nov 9

No major U.S. data
Markets position for CPI

Tue

Nov 10

7:30 a.m. CPI (October)
12:00 p.m. 10-yr note auction

Biggest mover

Wed

Nov 11 · Veterans Day

Bond market closed
Stocks open

Quiet for rates

Thu

Nov 12

Weekly jobless claims
12:00 p.m. 30-yr bond auction

Fri

Nov 13

7:30 a.m. PPI (October)
Wholesale inflation check

Coming next week: retail sales (Tue Nov 17). Later this month: PCE inflation (Nov 25). Then the Fed decides on Dec 9.

03 CPI Tuesday: the climax of the week

The September CPI showed headline inflation at 3.7% over the year, up from 3.4% in August, driven mostly by energy. The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on October 28, with two members voting to hike, and futures price roughly a 77% chance of a December 9 hike. That makes this the last big inflation read before the Fed sees PCE and November jobs.

🟢 Cooler than expected

Bonds rally and yields fall. Rates could test the high-6.9s to low-7s on the daily index, and hike odds would ease.

⚪ In line

A December hike is already mostly priced in. Rates likely hold near 7.1–7.2%. Watch the 10-yr auction that afternoon.

🔴 Hotter than expected

A hike becomes a near-lock and markets look past December. Rates could give back the last month's gains, back toward 7.3–7.5%.

The bond market is closed Wednesday, so whatever CPI does Tuesday carries into Thursday. If you're floating, Tuesday morning is the decision point.

04 What it means for you: $400K payment ladder

30-yr fixed rate	Monthly P&I on $400,000	vs today
6.67%	$2,573	−$134
6.92%	$2,640	−$67
7.17% (today)	$2,707	—
7.42%	$2,775	+$68
7.56% (a month ago)	$2,813	+$106

Example only: principal and interest on a $400,000, 30-year fixed loan. Excludes taxes, insurance and PMI. Not a rate quote.

Every quarter point is about $68 a month on $400K. Rates are down about $106 a month from early October.

05 Your next move

🏠 Buying

Get pre-approved now so you can lock fast if CPI comes in cool. Know your payment ceiling at 7.0% and 7.5%.

🔁 Refinancing

If your rate is 7.75% or higher, run the numbers this week. Ask about float-down options before CPI.

📅 Closing soon

Closing in the next 30 days? Talk to your lender before 7:30 a.m. Tuesday about locking versus floating through CPI.

One application. One credit pull. 30+ mortgage lenders.

See where your rate really lands this week, and get a second set of eyes on any Loan Estimate you've already received.

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Keep reading on The Rate Update blog

All mortgage rate news and home buying articles
Last week's Week in Review: jobs surge 165,000 as unemployment drops to 4.1% (on the blog)
Fed Rate Decision: why mortgage rates could drop without a Fed cut (on the blog)

Sources:Mortgage News Daily rate index (30-yr 7.17%, updated 11/6/26) · Treasury yields after the jobs report · October jobs and FedWatch December hike odds · Fed October 28 decision · CPI schedule and September CPI · November 2026 calendar · Veterans Day bond market close

Educational content only, not a loan offer or rate quote. Rates shown are national averages and examples; your rate depends on credit, loan amount, property and other factors. The Fed's policy rate is not the same as your mortgage rate.

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender · 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan officer with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage assistance is available in the states and jurisdictions served by the bank. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.