Election outcomes first. Then the week’s biggest mortgage-rate movers.
For homebuyers, Realtors and loan officers: the few reports worth watching, the numbers economists expect, and a clear explanation you can use with clients.
Monday, November 2 show • Week of November 2–6, 2026 • Prepared November 1. Results are pending.
Dan walks through what a Democratic Congress, a Republican Congress or a split Congress could mean for stocks, bonds and mortgage rates, then goes day by day through this week's reports. Watch "Election Results: Why the Winner Could Change Your Mortgage Rate" on YouTube →
Before we walk through the week, here are the three congressional outcomes to watch—and how each could affect stocks, bonds and mortgage rates.
Start with the policy surprise. Then watch the bond market’s reaction.
Divided government with a Republican president.
Policy uncertainty can reshuffle winners. Gridlock may limit major legislative changes.
Only if investors expect less borrowing or cooler inflation. Party control alone is not enough.
Lower bond yields could help—but mortgage pricing must actually improve.
Unified control can make legislation easier.
Policy continuity may support sentiment. Higher bond yields could offset the benefit.
If investors expect larger deficits and more Treasury borrowing, they may demand higher yields.
If bond yields rise on borrowing or inflation concerns, mortgage rates can follow.
Each party controls one chamber. Less room for major legislation; budget fights can still create volatility.
Earnings and interest rates regain center stage.
Watch inflation, jobs and Treasury supply.
Friday’s jobs report can outweigh the political headline.
Conditional scenarios—not probabilities or guaranteed market moves. These are congressional elections; the presidency does not change. An expected result may already be priced in. Neither party guarantees smaller deficits. Results may take longer than election night.
Same relationship. Two directions. Watch which one the market takes.
A fixed-rate bond’s promised payments stay the same. Pay less for those payments, and the yield rises; pay more, and it falls.
A stock-market rally does not automatically mean a better mortgage rate. Watch bonds—and then your lender’s quote.
These are typical directional pressures, not a one-for-one rule. Mortgage-backed securities, lender margins and your loan details also affect pricing.Watch bond yields after confirmed results. A stock rally does not automatically mean a better mortgage rate.
Party control changes policy expectations. The reaction in bonds tells us whether that creates relief or pressure for mortgage rates.
September’s hike did not lock mortgage rates into an upward path. By Friday, October 30, the 30-year fixed index was 7.27%—down from October’s peak, with no Fed cut.
Target range raised to 3.75%–4.00%.
Target stays at 3.75%–4.00%.
MND conventional 30-year fixed index.
A higher Fed target did not prevent a next-day mortgage-rate decline.
Mortgage pricing improved while the Fed target stayed unchanged.
Rates fell after the pause; the Fed did not cut.
Mortgage rates can fall after a Fed hike or during a pause. That does not prove the hike caused the decline. Friday’s 7.27% was still 3 basis points above September 16’s 7.24%.
“The Fed controls an overnight rate. Your mortgage follows the bond market’s view of what comes next. We don’t need a Fed cut for mortgage rates to improve.”
| Date · 2026 | What happened | MND 30-year fixed |
|---|---|---|
| September 16 | Fed hike announced | 7.24% |
| September 17 | Day after the hike | 7.19% |
| October 5 | Peak in the displayed period | 7.61% |
| October 23 | Friday before the pause week | 7.33% |
| October 28 | Fed pause announced | 7.35% |
| October 29 | Day after the pause | 7.29% |
| October 30 | Friday’s final daily index | 7.27% |
Friday-to-Friday: down 6 basis points. Mortgage rates rose 2 basis points on pause day itself, then fell Thursday and Friday. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Sources: MND daily history; September daily readings; Federal Reserve September 16 and October 28 statements. Verified November 2. “Friday” refers to MND’s final daily index, not a tradable closing price. Same index throughout; no mixing of daily and weekly surveys.
Start with the question. Check the forecast. Watch how bonds respond.
All times Central. Forecast snapshot: November 1, from the Investing.com calendar displayed on Bloomberg. No consensus means no estimate was established. Monday is a preview; actual results are not available yet.
Economists expect only a small dip in prices paid. Watch whether the actual report delivers more relief.
A larger drop could ease rate pressure. Also watch Treasury borrowing.
| Time CT | What we’re watching | Previous | Economists expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9:00 a.m. | Factory activityISM Manufacturing PMI · Oct | 54.5 | 54.7 |
| 9:00 a.m. | Factory input costsISM Manufacturing prices paid · Oct | 77.9 | 77.2 |
| 2:00 p.m. | Government borrowingTreasury Q4 net estimate update | $628bn* | No consensus |
*Treasury previous = August’s Q4 borrowing estimate, not actual borrowing. PMI and prices-paid readings are indices, not inflation percentages.
A bigger-than-expected fall in costs could help bonds and mortgage pricing. Hotter costs or heavier borrowing could push the other way.
Watch prices first, then the headline PMI. Our view stays near consensus on growth, with a risk that costs remain sticky.
“We’re watching whether business costs are easing enough to take pressure off mortgage rates.”
The morning’s JOLTS report tests hiring demand. That evening, revisit the election scenarios above as congressional results become clear.
Morning hiring demand; congressional results later. The election scenarios lead this show.
| Time CT | What we’re watching | Previous | Economists expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9:00 a.m. | Job openingsJOLTS · Sep | 7.079m | 7.110m |
| Evening | Election resultsControl of Congress | Pending vote | See lead story ↑ |
Openings near 7.1 million look reasonable. A softer result would fit the recent trend, but limited layoffs argue against assuming a labor-market collapse.
“The election matters through expected policy and borrowing; the bond market will tell us how lenders may respond.”
The market expects slower hiring and slightly slower services growth. The question is whether costs ease too.
Watch inflation pressure alongside ADP hiring and Treasury’s financing plan.
| Time CT | What we’re watching | Previous | Economists expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:15 a.m. | Private-sector hiringADP · Oct | 90k | 68k |
| 7:30 a.m. | Treasury financing planQuarterly refunding | Prior plan* | No consensus |
| 9:00 a.m. | Service-sector growthISM Services PMI · Oct | 54.9 | 54.8 |
| 9:00 a.m. | Service-sector costsISM Services prices paid · Oct | 74.0 | No consensus |
*Prior new-issue plan: $58bn 3-year / $42bn 10-year / $25bn 30-year. Watch changes to issuance sizes, not just the total borrowing headline.
Cooler hiring AND cooler prices are a cleaner signal for lower rates. Sticky prices can cancel out the benefit of slower growth.
ADP consensus already assumes cooling. We lean toward persistent service-sector cost pressure; watch for a genuine downside surprise before calling inflation relief.
“Slower hiring helps the rate outlook most when inflation pressure cools at the same time.”
If workers produce more per hour, wages can rise without costs per unit rising as quickly.
More output per hour can help contain inflation without a surge in layoffs.
| Time CT | What we’re watching | Previous | Economists expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30 a.m. | New unemployment claimsInitial claims · weekly | 194k | 197k |
| 7:30 a.m. | Output per worker-hourNonfarm productivity · Q3* | 1.4% | 2.8% |
| 7:30 a.m. | Labor cost per unit producedUnit labor costs · Q3* | 1.2% | 0.3% |
*Productivity and unit labor costs are quarterly changes at annualized rates.
Better productivity with contained labor costs is a healthier path toward lower inflation—and potentially lower mortgage rates.
Stay near consensus. Low claims do not show a layoff surge. The risk is productivity disappointing or compensation growing faster than assumed.
“The healthiest improvement is lower inflation without widespread job losses.”
Read jobs, wages and unemployment together. Then check whether inflation expectations reinforce the morning’s reaction.
Read jobs, wages and unemployment together—the week’s biggest scheduled data test.
| Time CT | What we’re watching | Previous | Economists expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30 a.m. | Jobs addedNonfarm payrolls · Oct | 29k | 63k |
| 7:30 a.m. | Unemployment rateBLS household survey · Oct | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 7:30 a.m. | Monthly wage growthAverage hourly earnings · Oct | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 9:00 a.m. | Longer-run inflation expectationsMichigan survey · Nov preliminary | 3.5% | No consensus |
Softer hiring with cooler wages would generally help bonds. Weak jobs plus persistent inflation make the rate outlook less clear.
Our low-confidence payroll working view is about 50k versus 63k consensus, based on the roughly 50.7k July–September average. Low claims and resilient output could make that view too soft.
“We’ll compare the actual jobs and wage numbers with expectations, then check whether lenders improve pricing.”
Softer jobs + cooler prices + manageable bond supply.
Hot wages + persistent inflation + heavier long-term issuance.
Weak hiring with high costs, or unresolved election uncertainty.
At $400,000 over 30 years, 7.00% is about $2,661/month; 7.25% is about $2,729/month in principal and interest.
Illustration only; excludes taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance and fees. Rate and lock decisions depend on your loan, closing date and risk tolerance.
Friday, we’ll revisit these same 16 selected items. We’ll add actuals beside the original forecasts, identify revisions, and show the observed bond-market and mortgage-pricing response. The question: what changed for a buyer since Monday?
Difference = actual minus forecast, in the same units. A positive difference is not automatically good or bad: higher claims and higher inflation have very different meanings. If a forecast is missing, show “not available.”
Election Results: Why the Winner Could Change Your Mortgage Rate
New episodes every Monday (the week ahead) and Friday (what happened and what it means). Subscribe to The Rate Update on YouTube.
As featured on Homes.com: "Mortgage rates climb to another three-year high"
