Today is Fed Decision Day, and it's landing alongside some real overnight drama: Iran launched a missile attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East, sending oil prices sharply higher. Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are actually a touch better this morning. Here's what's happening and what it means for you.
Overnight, Iran launched a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East. Oil prices jumped more than 6% on the news, and markets are on edge as they wait to see how it develops.
On top of that, the Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting today with a rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Most expect the Fed to hold steady, but there's talk of some disagreement among Fed officials worth watching.
| Loan Type | Rate | Today's Change |
| 30-Yr Conventional | 6.760% | ▼ 0.040 |
| 30-Yr FHA | 6.320% | ▼ 0.040 |
| 30-Yr VA | 6.340% | ▼ 0.030 |
| 30-Yr Jumbo | 6.890% | ▼ 0.010 |
| 15-Yr Fixed | 6.310% | ▼ 0.020 |
| 7/6 ARM | 6.340% | ▼ 0.040 |
Estimated rates for a $400K loan, informational only — not a commitment to lend. Actual pricing depends on your credit, down payment, and loan details.
Today: Fed rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady.
Tomorrow: A big morning of data — GDP, Personal Income, and the PCE inflation report (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge) all land at 8:30 AM ET. This could matter just as much as today's Fed meeting.
Rates eased a little again this morning and are basically level with where they were a week ago. That said, two big things are happening this afternoon — the Fed's decision and the fallout from overnight news out of the Middle East — and either one could move rates quickly. If you're actively house-hunting, today's calm window is worth taking advantage of rather than waiting to see what happens.
Buyer traffic may slow a bit this week — mortgage applications came in noticeably weaker in the latest report. Pair that with a Fed decision and overnight geopolitical news both landing today, and it's natural for rate-sensitive buyers to pause and wait things out. Tomorrow's inflation data could set the tone for how next week's showings feel.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady today, but keep an ear out for disagreement among Fed officials during the 2:30 PM press conference — that commentary can move markets more than the decision itself. Add in the overnight oil spike and rising Treasury yields, and today calls for keeping a close eye on your rate sheets. Tomorrow's inflation report is the next big thing worth prepping clients for.
