Fed Rate Decision Today: Why Mortgage Rates Could DROP Without a Fed Cut
The Fed is expected to hold at 3.75%–4.00% today, but mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed. Seven Fed meetings since December 2025, plus jobs, PCE inflation, GDP, housing and the bond market, show why your mortgage rate can still move — and could come down — even without a Fed cut.
FED DECISION DAY / OCTOBER 28, 2026 / PRE-DECISION EDITION
FED PAUSE ≠ MORTGAGE-RATE FREEZE
The Fed raised last time. A hold today won’t freeze mortgage rates.
September: +0.25%. Today: 91% reported odds of a hold. Seven meetings show why mortgage rates can still move.
By Dan Frio · October 28, 2026 · The Rate Update
Editorial illustrations are AI-generated. Charts and tables show sourced economic data.
October 28, 2026 · Morning, pre-decision edition. Confirmed past actions and today’s expectations are labeled separately. 🔴 Watch the Fed decision LIVE with Dan: youtube.com/live/dfzZWriT1qE
WATCH TODAY’S OPENING BELL
The Fed Will Likely Do Nothing. Here’s Why Your Mortgage Rate Still Moves
Meeting-date observations: Federal Reserve H.15 / FRED DGS10; Optimal Blue / FRED OBMMIC30YF. Mortgage figures are daily conforming rate-lock averages, not APRs or individual quotes.
Fed vote ≠ mortgage-rate direction. Watch the statement, press conference and bond-market response.
02 / THE RATE UPDATE
Jobs: this week’s ADP release + monthly payrolls
AI-generated editorial illustration · Jobs
ADP payrolls: this week’s update + four-month history
NEW THIS WEEK · OCTOBER 27 RELEASE
Prior · week ending Oct. 3+17,500average jobs per week
−750
Latest · week ending Oct. 10+16,750average jobs per week
ADP NER Pulse, October 27. Weekly averages and monthly totals are separate measures. Monthly figures: original ADP release headlines, June–September 2026.
03 / THE RATE UPDATE
Inflation: PCE vs. core PCE
AI-generated editorial illustration · Inflation
PCE inflation: distance from 2%
Headline PCE3.4%+1.4 pp above 2%
0%2% reference4%
Core PCE3.0%+1.0 pp above 2%
0%2% reference4%
August 2026 · annual change · BEA release September 30. The Fed’s longer-run goal is 2% headline PCE; core excludes food and energy.
PCE inflation: latest published reading
Measure
Monthly change
Yearly change
Headline PCE
+0.3%
+3.4%
Core PCE
+0.2%
+3.0%
FED INFLATION GOAL2.0%Headline PCE over the longer run
NEXT PCE REPORTTOMORROWOct. 29 · 7:30 a.m. CT
LATEST DATAAUGUSTReleased September 30
Core PCE excludes food and energy. Both annual readings remain above 2%; tomorrow’s release covers September. Source: BEA.
04 / THE RATE UPDATE
GDP: the last four published quarters
AI-generated editorial illustration · Gdp
Real GDP: quarterly growth scorecard
Q3 20253.9%Real GDP growth
Q4 20250.2%Real GDP growth
Q1 20262.5%Real GDP growth
Q2 20262.2%Real GDP growth
Seasonally adjusted annualized growth · BEA/FRED, September 30 revised vintage.
Real GDP growth by quarter
Quarter
Annualized growth
Q3 2025
3.9%
Q4 2025
0.2%
Q1 2026
2.5%
Q2 2026
2.2%
BEA/FRED revised data as of September 30. Growth is inflation-adjusted and annualized. Q3 2026 advance estimate: tomorrow, Oct. 29, 7:30 a.m. CT.
05 / THE RATE UPDATE
New-home sales: slower sales, mixed prices
AI-generated editorial illustration · Home
AUGUST SALES+5.1%Month over month · revised
SEPTEMBER SALES−0.6%Month over month · preliminary
20-CITY HOME PRICES+2.7%August YoY · previously +2.5%
September 2026 new-home sales, prices and inventory
Indicator
August
September
Sales pace (SAAR)
680,000
676,000
Monthly sales change
+5.1%
−0.6%
Median sale price
$385,400
$400,400
Homes for sale (adjusted)
481,000
476,000
Months of supply
8.5
8.4
Home prices: selected cities, different directions
CHICAGO+6.7%annual price change
NEW YORK+6.2%annual price change
CLEVELAND+4.3%annual price change
SEATTLE−2.0%annual price change
August 2026 · S&P Cotality Case-Shiller resale-home price indexes. Selected cities, not a national average.
Census/HUD: September new-home sales; the −0.6% change is not statistically significant (±13.8 percentage points). Case-Shiller: August resale prices, a separate measure. Slower sales do not establish why prices changed.
06 / THE RATE UPDATE
Consumer confidence: a rebound
AI-generated editorial illustration · Confidence
Consumer confidence: September → October
SEPTEMBER · REVISED84.2index, 1985 = 100
+7.5 points
OCTOBER91.7index, 1985 = 100
The Conference Board · October 27 release.
The Conference Board, released October 27; 1985=100. Confidence improved, while the survey’s longer-term trend remained weak.
07 / THE RATE UPDATE
Five-year auction: lower borrowing yield
AI-generated editorial illustration · Bonds
Five-year Treasury auction: yield comparison
SEPTEMBER 235.033%auction high yield
−18.8 bp
OCTOBER 274.845%auction high yield
U.S. Treasury · 2026 auctions · same maturity. Yield is distinct from coupon and mortgage rates.
U.S. Treasury auction results. Bid-to-cover improved from 2.21 to 2.33. Auction yields are not mortgage rates.
Historical rates: daily FRED series DGS10 and OBMMIC30YF. ADP: original monthly release headlines. GDP: September 30 revised vintage. Images are conceptual AI illustrations; charts use sourced data. Rates vary by borrower.
The Rate Update with Dan Frio · Mortgage clarity. Real answers. Dan Frio · NMLS #246527 · TheRateUpdate.com Educational market commentary. Forecasts are uncertain; mortgage rates, costs and eligibility vary by borrower and lender. This article is not a rate quote or commitment to lend. Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender · 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701 Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan officer with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage assistance is available in the states and jurisdictions served by the bank. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.
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