Good morning! Rates are holding steady today while the market waits on tomorrow's big event: the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Here's what's happening and what to watch before Wednesday afternoon.
Fed decision tomorrow: The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting Wednesday, July 29, with the rate decision at 2:00pm ET and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30pm ET.
Markets are split: One major futures market has gotten notably less confident the Fed will simply hold rates steady this week, while other prediction markets still expect a hold. That kind of disagreement often means more movement, not less, once the decision actually comes out.
A calmer morning: Oil eased again today and bond yields ticked lower — a quieter setup than yesterday's news-driven swings.
| Loan Type | Today's Rate | Change Today |
| 30-Yr Conventional | 6.800% | ▼ -0.010 |
| 30-Yr FHA | 6.360% | ▼ -0.010 |
| 30-Yr VA | 6.370% | ▼ -0.020 |
| 30-Yr Jumbo | 6.900% | — flat |
| 15-Yr Conventional | 6.330% | ▼ -0.010 |
Rates are essentially flat today and roughly flat compared with a week ago — a much quieter day than yesterday. All eyes are on tomorrow's Fed decision.
Today brought a light data slate, including this morning's Consumer Confidence report. The main event by far is tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 29, the Fed announces its rate decision at 2:00pm ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30pm ET. Market expectations have shifted meaningfully over the past week, and different market indicators are telling somewhat different stories — which means the outcome is genuinely less certain than it looked just a few days ago. We'll break it all down on tomorrow's show.
Rates are sitting quietly around 6.80% today while the market waits on tomorrow's Fed decision. The thing worth knowing: some market indicators have gotten less confident the Fed will simply hold steady, even though others still expect that. That kind of disagreement usually means more chance of a real move once the decision lands — so if you're close to being ready, today's calm might be the last quiet day for a bit.
Nothing dramatic happened with rates today, but tomorrow's Fed decision is a genuine wildcard this time around. Confidence in a simple "no change" outcome has slipped over the past week according to some market signals, even as others stay steady. It's a good moment to remind hesitant buyers that today's calm doesn't guarantee what tomorrow brings.
Bonds are quiet today, which is often the calm before a bigger move. With market indicators genuinely disagreeing about tomorrow's Fed outcome, this is a good day to have honest conversations with fence-sitting clients about locking in before 2pm ET tomorrow rather than waiting to see what happens.
