The 60-second version
- CPI: Prices rose 0.4% in October (forecast 0.3%). Core rose 0.3% (forecast 0.2%), the third straight month at that pace.
- Waller: Hours earlier, he said core near 0.3% means a 50-basis-point hike should be considered in December.
- Jobs: ADP's weekly tracker shows hiring firming for a second straight week, after Friday's 165,000-job report.
- Fed odds: Futures now price a December hike at roughly 99%.
- Rates: The 10-year jumped to about 4.93% and mortgage bonds fell, so lenders are likely repricing higher today.
1. CPI comes in hot for the third straight month
The Consumer Price Index measures how much a basket of everyday goods and services costs from one month to the next — groceries, rent, gas, car insurance, medical care. "Core" CPI strips out food and energy because they bounce around, so the Fed watches core most closely.
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, after 0.6% in September. Economists expected 0.3%. Core prices rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast — the same pace as September and August.
Monthly CPI vs. forecast
2. Fed Governor Waller: a 50-basis-point hike "should be considered"
Hours before the report, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller laid out a clear test in a speech in London. He said he's leaning toward a quarter-point hike in December even if inflation improved. But if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher, he said a stronger move may be needed.
In his words, "I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting." Core came in at exactly 0.3%. Keep in mind that Waller is one of 12 voters. The full committee still has to agree, so a half-point hike is on the table, not a done deal.
3. Jobs: steady, and firming for a second week
ADP's weekly NER Pulse showed private employers added an average of 19,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending Oct. 24 — up from 19,500 the week before and 16,750 two weeks earlier. That follows Friday's government report showing 165,000 jobs added in October.
ADP NER Pulse: average weekly private job gains
4. December hike odds jump to roughly 99%
Friday's strong jobs report pushed the odds of a December hike to about 78%, and they reached 85% by Monday. Waller's speech lifted them above 96%, and after the hot CPI the market is fully pricing a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, with about 60 basis points of hikes priced over the year ahead.
CME FedWatch: odds of a December rate hike
The next number to watch is the chance of a half-point move. Before CPI, futures gave it only about 1%. If more Fed officials echo Waller this week, that number could climb.
5. The 10-year and mortgage bonds react
Bond yields rose right after the report. The 10-year Treasury jumped to about 4.93%, up roughly 7 basis points, and the 2-year was already up about 9 basis points before the data on Waller's comments.
Mortgage-backed securities — the bonds that actually set your rate — fell more than a third of a point. When MBS prices drop like that, lenders reprice their rate sheets higher, sometimes more than once in a day.
6. What now for home buyers and mortgage rates?
Freddie Mac's latest weekly average is still 7.18%, after four straight weekly declines. Today's move puts that streak at risk; the next Freddie Mac reading comes Thursday.
🔒 Closing within 30 days
If the payment works, this isn't the week to gamble. Talk with your loan officer about locking.
🏡 Still shopping
Get pre-approved at today's rates, and negotiate seller credits or a rate buydown. Homes are taking longer to sell.
👀 Homeowners
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This is general market commentary, not advice on your specific loan. Every file is different.
7. The rest of the week
| Wed · Nov 11 | Veterans Day — U.S. bond market closed LOW |
| Thu · Nov 12 | Freddie Mac weekly rate survey · jobless claims MED |
| Fri · Nov 13 | Producer Price Index (wholesale inflation)HIGH |
| Dec 8–9 | FOMC meeting — quarter-point hike fully priced; half-point now in play HIGH |
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Market snapshot
| Oct. CPI (m/m) | +0.4% |
| Oct. core CPI (m/m) | +0.3% |
| 10-yr Treasury | 4.93% |
| UMBS 5.5 | 97.54 |
| Dec. hike odds | ~99% |
| Fed funds | 3.75–4.00% |
| 30-yr fixed (Freddie) | 7.18% |
| ADP weekly avg. | 19,750 |
8. Frequently asked questions
What was the October 2026 CPI?
Prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected — its third straight 0.3% month. No yearly rate was published because of missing October 2025 data.
Did Fed Governor Waller call for a 50-basis-point hike?
He said that if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher, a 50-basis-point hike should be considered at the December meeting, and that hiking only 25 would put the Fed's credibility at risk. Core came in at 0.3%. He is one of 12 voters.
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
Futures now fully price a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, about 99% odds. The open question is whether it's a quarter point or a half point.
What does hot CPI mean for mortgage rates?
Hot inflation pushes bond yields up. The 10-year rose to about 4.93% and mortgage bonds fell, so lenders are likely pricing rates higher today. The Freddie Mac weekly average, last at 7.18%, updates Thursday.
Should I lock my mortgage rate now?
If you're closing within 30 days and the payment works, locking removes the risk of further moves. If you're further out, set a target rate and talk with your loan officer about lock options.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index — October 2026, released Nov. 10, 2026
- Federal Reserve, Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook, Nov. 10, 2026
- ADP Research, NER Pulse preliminary estimate for Oct. 24, 2026 (released Nov. 10)
- CNBC, US10Y quote and live coverage, Nov. 10, 2026
- MBS Live, 30-year UMBS 5.5, Nov. 10, 2026
- CME FedWatch as reported by Fox Business (Nov. 6), TheStreet and investingLive (Nov. 10)
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Nov. 5, 2026