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The 60-second version
- Iran: President Trump said "we don't need a deal with Iran." Stock futures dropped, and the oil trade is back up in the air. Higher oil means higher inflation.
- Bonds: The 10-year Treasury reopened after Veterans Day at 5.01%, and mortgage bonds fell more than 50 basis points early before bouncing.
- Rates: Mortgage rates start the day near 7.30%, up about an eighth to a quarter point from earlier this week (about 7.125%).
- Jobs: Initial claims rose to 200,000 (194,000 expected), but continuing claims fell to 1.697 million, so more people are getting hired back.
- Next: Friday's PPI is expected to cool to +0.4% after September's 1.3%. The Fed meets in 27 days with a hike about 90% priced.
1. Trump: "We don't need a deal with Iran"
This morning was supposed to be quiet. Then stock futures dropped on a Nvidia shake-up and a headline from President Trump: "we don't need a deal with Iran." Earlier this week oil had been slipping on hopes for U.S.–Iran talks. Now the oil trade is back up in the air.
Here's why that matters for your mortgage. When oil goes up, it raises the cost of almost everything: the tractors on the farm, the trucks that bring food to the store, the gas in your car. That shows up as inflation. If inflation stays hot, the Federal Reserve keeps raising rates, and bond investors demand higher yields. That's bad news for mortgage rates.
2. The headlines so far this week
| Mon · Nov 9 | Calm before the storm. Freddie Mac's weekly average had fallen to 7.18% after four straight weekly declines. CALM |
| Tue · Nov 10 | CPI comes in hot. Prices +0.4% (0.3% expected), core +0.3% for a third straight month. Fed Governor Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered if core stayed near 0.3%. HOT |
| Tue · Nov 10 | Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index jumped to 7.30% (+0.12), the biggest one-day rise in more than a month. RATES UP |
| Wed · Nov 11 | Bond market closed for Veterans Day. Oil eased on hopes for U.S.–Iran talks. HOLIDAY |
| Thu · Nov 12 | Bonds reopen with the 10-year at 5.01%. Trump says no Iran deal is needed; Nvidia drops about 6% premarket. TODAY |
Treasury yields this week: the 2-year and 10-year
3. Jobless claims: 200,000, but more people are getting rehired
Initial claims count people filing for unemployment for the first time, our best weekly read on layoffs. Continuing claims count people still collecting benefits, which tells us how hard it is to find a new job.
Initial jobless claims: up, but still near historic lows
Continuing claims: back under 1.7 million
4. Tomorrow 8:30 a.m. ET: the Producer Price Index (PPI)
PPI measures what businesses get paid for their goods and services, wholesale inflation before it reaches you. If producers' costs go up, it eventually trickles down to us. September's PPI jumped 1.3%, its biggest monthly gain since March 2022, driven by a 10.8% surge in energy prices. Economists expect October to cool to +0.4%, with core PPI at +0.3% after 0.7%.
PPI monthly change: September's spike, October's forecast
PPI over 12 months
5. The Fed meets in 27 days
Futures put the odds of a December hike at about 90%, and they're pricing more hikes in 2027. But a Fed hike doesn't automatically mean higher mortgage rates. When the Fed raised rates a quarter point in September, mortgage rates rose a little and then fell back to where they were, and even lower.
What futures price for December 9
6. Today's top stories
Stock futures this morning
- Iran. Trump says "we don't need a deal with Iran," putting oil back in play.
- Nvidia shake-up. Shares fell about 6% before the open on a report that the board is weighing whether to replace CEO Jensen Huang.
- 10-year back above 5%. Bonds reopened at 5.01% on the 10-year and 4.78% on the 2-year.
- 30-year bond auction, 1 p.m. ET. $25 billion of 30-year bonds. Weak demand would push long-term rates higher.
- Existing home sales, 10 a.m. ET. October sales were expected near 3.87–3.89 million.
- Freddie Mac rate survey, noon ET. Last week 7.18%.
7. Mortgage bonds: the gap to watch
Mortgage bonds closed Tuesday at one level and opened today well below it. Traders call that a gap. Gaps usually fill, and if this one does, it would bring mortgage bonds back up to about 97.88–98.00, which would help rates. Tomorrow's PPI will likely decide whether that happens this week.
8. What now for home buyers and homeowners
🔒 Closing within 30 days
Two big tests: today's bond auction and tomorrow's PPI. If the payment works, talk to your loan officer about locking.
🏡 Shopping
Get pre-approved at today's rate and negotiate seller credits or a buydown.
👀 Homeowners
Set a target with Rate Watch and let the alert come to you. You can also check today's refinance rates on our site.
This is general market commentary, not advice on your specific loan. Every file is different.
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Market snapshot
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.01% |
| 2-yr Treasury | 4.78% |
| 30-yr fixed (MND) | 7.30% |
| 30-yr (Freddie, last wk) | 7.18% |
| Initial claims | 200K |
| Continuing claims | 1.697M |
| PPI est. (Fri) | +0.4% m/m |
| Fed funds | 3.75–4.00% |
9. Frequently asked questions
Why does Trump's Iran comment matter for mortgage rates?
It puts oil back in play. Higher oil feeds inflation, which keeps the Fed hiking and pushes bond yields and mortgage rates higher.
What were jobless claims today?
Initial claims rose to 200,000 versus 194,000 expected and 191,000 the prior week. Continuing claims fell to 1.697 million versus 1.710 million expected.
What are mortgage rates today?
The 30-year fixed starts the day near 7.30% on Mortgage News Daily's index, up from about 7.125% earlier in the week. Your rate depends on credit, down payment and loan type.
When is the next PPI report?
Friday, Nov. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect +0.4% for October after September's 1.3%.
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
Futures price about a 90% chance of a hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting. A Fed hike doesn't always push mortgage rates up; in September, rates rose briefly and then fell back.
Sources
- CNBC, Trump Iran headline and US10Y quote, Nov. 12, 2026
- U.S. Department of Labor weekly claims, Nov. 12, 2026 (via Investing.com calendar)
- Mortgage News Daily rate index, Nov. 10, 2026; Freddie Mac PMMS, Nov. 5, 2026
- BLS CPI (Oct. 2026) and PPI (Sept. 2026); Federal Reserve, Waller speech, Nov. 10, 2026
- Forex Factory, TradingKey, 24/7 Wall St. and Stocktitan PPI previews
- CME FedWatch; The Weekend Spread, Nov. 11, 2026
- Yahoo Finance and Reuters, Nov. 12, 2026