What a week. Voters handed Democrats control of both the House and the Senate. Wall Street threw its best rally since April 2025, then gave every point back and more as AI, data center, Tesla and SpaceX stocks got hammered. Oil dropped hard, then bounced. Mortgage rates fell four days straight to the lowest level since September. And this morning, the October jobs report came in nearly three times stronger than expected.
Here are the main events of the week, why each one moved mortgage rates, and what it means for your monthly payment.
| Day | Biggest headlines | 30-yr rate (MND) |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 2 | Oil sells off on Iran peace-talk hopes | 7.27% |
| Tue, Nov 3 | Election Day; job openings jump to 7.52 million | 7.30% |
| Wed, Nov 4 | Democrats win Congress; oil falls 8.3%; Dow +1,569 | 7.22% |
| Thu, Nov 5 | Nasdaq correction; 10-yr hits 4.84%; tanker attacks | 7.17% |
| Fri, Nov 6 | Jobs surge 165,000; unemployment drops to 4.1% | Likely higher |
MND = Mortgage News Daily daily average for top-tier borrowers.
Crude dropped more than 7% as markets bet on diplomacy ahead of the midterms, with WTI settling at $98.70. Oil had gained more than 10% in October on fears of escalation after the election. Mortgage rates held at 7.27% as markets waited for Tuesday.
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats were up for grabs, with Republicans holding both chambers going in. Bonds were cautious and mortgage rates edged up to 7.30%, the high for the week.
September job openings rose 333,000 to 7.52 million, and quits rose to 3.37 million, a sign workers feel confident they can find something better. It was the first hint this week that the labor market was stronger than it looked in September.
Democrats won about 258 House seats, the widest margin since 1993, and flipped seven Senate seats. Treasury yields fell, as investors expect a divided government to mean less new borrowing.
"The reason we lost is the war," Vice President JD Vance posted. Markets read that as more pressure to make a deal with Iran, and WTI fell 8.3% to $88.12. Brent fell about 20% in three sessions, its biggest three-day drop since April 2020. Lower oil means less inflation pressure, which is good for mortgage rates.
The Dow had its best day since April 2025, and ADP private payrolls beat forecasts at +86,000. Mortgage rates fell below 7.25% to 7.22%.
The Nasdaq fell 5.5% and the Dow lost 1,833 points on fears of a slower AI data center buildout. About $2.5 trillion in market value was erased, and the Nasdaq-100 had its worst day since March 2020.
Money ran to the safety of Treasury bonds, pushing the 10-year yield down to 4.84%. Mortgage rates broke below 7.20% to 7.17%, the lowest since September, and Freddie Mac's weekly average fell for a third straight week to 7.18%.
At least five tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz and one hit a mine, sending WTI back to $90.52. Eurasia Group puts the odds of renewed U.S. strikes at 60% and a deal at only 10%. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, another sign layoffs are rare.
Payrolls rose 165,000, nearly three times the 59,000 to 65,000 forecast, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs.
Unemployment fell from 4.2% in September back to 4.1%, where it was in July and August. Lower unemployment plus rising wages strengthens the case for a December Fed hike.
The 10-year yield jumped about 6 basis points to roughly 4.90% within minutes of the report. After four straight days of improvement, expect lenders to price rates higher today. The next test is October CPI on Tuesday.
| Result | Details |
|---|---|
| House | About 258 Democratic seats (NBC projection), widest margin since 1993; 40+ seats flipped (CBS) |
| Senate | +7 Democratic flips: Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Maine |
| Governors | +5 Democratic flips: Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa |
Each square is one state. Sources: Fortune, NBC News.
What it means for housing and mortgage rates:
"I don't pick sides. I watch what the bond market does, and the bond market liked gridlock: yields fell the day after the election." — Dan Frio
The Dow jumped 1,569 points Wednesday, then lost 1,833 Thursday to close at 51,523, below Tuesday's Election Day close. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% into a correction, the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.4% for its worst day since March 2020, and the semiconductor index dropped about 12%. By Friday morning, tech stocks were trying to bounce.
Tesla fell 3.3% Wednesday and about 10.8% Thursday. SpaceX fell 3.8% Wednesday and about 9.1% Thursday. Together they lost about $456 billion in market value from Tuesday's close through Thursday, according to CNBC. Investors are worried about new congressional probes, stricter regulation and slower Texas data center plans.
Sources: CNBC, NBC News. Nvidia lost about $450 billion in market value Thursday; AMD was down about 29% for the week through Thursday.
"When stocks crash, money runs to the safety of Treasury bonds. That pushed the 10-year yield to a two-month low and gave us 7.17% mortgage rates. When stocks bounce back, that money can leave bonds just as fast." — Dan Frio
Sources: OilPriceAPI, EnergyNow, CNBC.
Monday through Wednesday: oil sold off on Iran peace-talk headlines, then fell 8.3% Wednesday after the Vice President blamed the war for the election losses and the President said he had no immediate plans to strike Iran.
Thursday: a reminder the war isn't over. Tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz pushed prices back up. If the conflict escalates, Eurasia Group sees Brent at $110 to $125.
"The longer the war goes and the longer oil stays high, the more it feeds inflation. That's why oil and mortgage rates have moved together all year." — Dan Frio
| October jobs report | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | +165,000 | +59K to +65K | +60K (Sep, revised) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Avg hourly earnings (month) | +14¢ (~0.4%) | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| Avg hourly earnings (year) | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| Revisions, Aug + Sep | +84,000 | — | Aug 133K → 186K; Sep 29K → 60K |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via CNBC and The Hill.
Private payrolls point the same way. ADP showed +86,000 in October, beating the 75,000 estimate. Add in job openings at 7.52 million and jobless claims at 189,000, and the direction is clear: employment is strengthening, not weakening.
"Good news for workers can be bad news for rates. More jobs and rising wages mean more spending and more inflation pressure, and that pushes mortgage rates up." — Dan Frio
September CPI rose 3.7% from a year ago, with core CPI at 2.6% and gasoline up 34.2%. The Fed raised rates on September 16 and held at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with both dissenters wanting another hike. Before today's report, markets priced about a 69%–73% chance of a December hike, and a hot jobs report pushes that back up. The Fed meets next on December 8–9, and October CPI comes out Tuesday.
Source: Mortgage News Daily.
| Milestone | 30-yr (MND) | What drove it |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16: Fed hikes | 7.24% | Highest since Jan 2025; the 10-yr crossed 5% |
| Sep 30: the peak | 7.58% | Oil, inflation fears and debt worries |
| Nov 3: Election Day | 7.30% | Yields easing as oil cooled |
| Nov 5: last close | 7.17% | Election, oil drop and tech sell-off sent money into bonds |
| Nov 6: today | Likely higher | Hot jobs report; 10-yr up ~6 bp to ~4.90% |
Sources: Bankrate, AP, FXStreet, CNN, CNBC.
"The Fed hiked in September, but rates kept rising for two more weeks, then fell for five weeks while the Fed did nothing. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury and the mortgage bond market, and those trade every single day on jobs, inflation, oil and fear." — Dan Frio
| 30-yr rate | Principal & interest / month |
|---|---|
| 7.58% (Sep 30 peak) | $2,537 |
| 7.24% (Fed hike day) | $2,453 |
| 7.17% (Thursday) | $2,436 |
That's about $101 a month less than at the peak, or about $1,212 a year.
| Rate | Principal & interest / month |
|---|---|
| 8.00% (example: a loan taken near the late-2023 highs) | $2,935 |
| 7.17% (new loan) | $2,707 |
That's about $228 a month less. With about $6,000 in closing costs, the refinance pays for itself in about 26 months. If you bought at this fall's 7.58% peak, the savings is about $112 a month, so watch it rather than rush it.
Principal and interest only on a new 30-year term; excludes taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance. Closing costs are an illustrative assumption. Not a loan offer; your rate depends on credit, loan amount, down payment and program.
| Day | Event |
|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 9 | TRU Week Ahead show |
| Tue, Nov 10 | October CPI, the biggest number before the Fed meeting |
| Wed, Nov 11 | Veterans Day; bond market closed |
| Thu, Nov 12 | Freddie Mac weekly rate; jobless claims |
| Fri, Nov 13 | TRU Week in Review |
All week, watch oil and Iran headlines plus tech stocks. Coming up next: the November jobs report on December 4 and the Fed decision on December 9.
The U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, far above forecasts of 59,000 to 65,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%, wages rose 3.1% from a year earlier, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs.
Yes. NBC News projected about 258 House seats for Democrats, the widest margin since 1993, and Democrats flipped seven Senate seats in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina and Maine.
Investors worried that a Democratic Congress and new Democratic governors, including in Texas, would restrict or slow AI data center construction. On Thursday the Nasdaq fell 5.5% into a correction, led by chip stocks such as Nvidia, AMD and Micron.
About $456 billion in combined market value from the Election Day close through Thursday, according to CNBC. On Thursday alone Tesla fell about 10.8% and SpaceX about 9.1%.
It raises the odds of another Fed rate hike in December and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up about 6 basis points to roughly 4.90%. Mortgage rates track that yield, so expect them to tick up from Thursday's 7.17% average.
Every Monday I cover the week ahead, and every Friday I review the week, with the most important real estate and mortgage news and, more importantly, the WHYs: why mortgage rates change every day even though the Fed doesn't meet every day.
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