| October jobs report | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | +165,000 | +59K (Dow Jones) to +65K | +60K (Sep, revised) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% ↓ | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Avg hourly earnings (month) | +14¢ (~0.4%) | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| Avg hourly earnings (year) | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| Revisions, Aug + Sep | +84,000 | — | Aug 133K → 186K; Sep 29K → 60K |
Sources: BLS via CNBC, The Hill/PIX11 (Oct release with Aug/Sep revisions); July (−10K) and prior unemployment rates from the Oct 2 BLS release via CNBC and Continuum Economics.
| Month | ADP private payrolls | BLS total payrolls |
|---|---|---|
| September | +86K (revised) | +60K (revised) |
| October | +86K (beat 75K est.) | +165K |
Add in job openings rising to 7.52 million and jobless claims at 189,000, and the direction is clear: employment is strengthening, not weakening.
Sources: BLS via CNBC (CPI 3.7% Sep, core 2.6%; gasoline +34.2% y/y); Commerce Dept. via CNBC (PCE 3.6%, core 3.1%; Q3 GDP 3.4%); Fox Business (FOMC); CME FedWatch via CoinDesk and PANews.
Inflation is running near 3.7% while the economy grew 3.4% last quarter. Today's jobs and wage numbers add to the Fed's reasons to hike again on December 8–9. The next big test is October CPI on Tuesday.
Sources: Mortgage News Daily (Sep 16 7.24%; Sep 29 7.50%; Sep 30 7.58%; Nov 2–5); Yahoo Finance citing MND (Oct 9 7.48%). Friday's MND average posts this afternoon.
| Milestone | 30-yr (MND) | What drove it |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16: Fed hikes | 7.24% | Highest since Jan 2025; the 10-yr crossed 5% |
| Sep 30: the peak | 7.58% | Oil, inflation fears and debt worries; 10-yr hit its highest since 2002 |
| Nov 3: Election Day | 7.30% | Yields easing as oil cooled |
| Nov 5: last close | 7.17% | Election, oil drop, tech sell-off sent money into bonds |
| Nov 6: today | Likely higher | Hot jobs report; 10-yr up ~6 bp to ~4.90% |
Sources: Bankrate (above 5.3% week of Oct 7); AP (4.95% Nov 3); FXStreet (4.90% Nov 4); CNN (4.84% Nov 5); CNBC (~4.90% after Friday's jobs report).
10% down · $360,000 loan · 30-yr fixed
| Rate | P&I / month |
|---|---|
| 7.58% (Sep 30 peak) | $2,537 |
| 7.24% (Fed hike day) | $2,453 |
| 7.17% (Thursday) | $2,436 |
Example: a homeowner who locked near 8% (where rates topped out in late 2023)
| Rate | P&I / month |
|---|---|
| 8.00% (current loan) | $2,935 |
| 7.17% (new loan) | $2,707 |
Principal and interest only, new 30-year term; excludes taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance. Closing costs are an illustrative assumption. Not a loan offer; your rate depends on credit, loan amount, down payment and program.
All week: oil and Iran headlines, plus tech stocks. A deal or more stock selling helps rates; escalation hurts them. Coming up: November jobs report Dec 4, Fed decision Dec 9.
The most important real estate and mortgage news of the week, and more importantly the WHYs: why mortgage rates change every single day, even though the Fed doesn't meet every day.
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