Mortgage Rates Week in Review: Election, Oil and a 165K Jobs Surprise

The TRU Week in Review: Washington flipped, oil cracked and mortgage rates fell four straight days to 7.17%. Then October's 165,000-job report sent the 10-year Treasury back toward 4.90%. Day-by-day headlines, the election map, the oil swing, jobs, inflation and the Fed, and what it all means for your payment.

Jobs Report UpdateWeek in Review

Jobs Surge to 165K: Will a Strong Economy Stop Mortgage Rates From Falling?

Washington flipped, oil cracked and mortgage rates fell to their lowest since September. Then this morning's jobs report came in nearly three times stronger than expected.

By Dan Frio, Mortgage Advisor at PBT Bancorp · NMLS #246527 · Updated Friday, Nov 6, after the 7:30 AM CT jobs report

Election · Tue

D: House + Senate

~258 House seats; +7 Senate flips

Oil (WTI) · Wed

~$90

↓ 8.3% Wed; heading for a 13%+ weekly drop

Jobs · Fri

+165K · 4.1%

vs. 59K–65K expected; unemployment ↓ 0.1

Inflation · next Tue

3.7% CPI

September; October CPI out Nov 10

10-Yr Treasury · Fri

~4.90%

↑ 6 bp on jobs; 4.84% Thu was a 2-month low

30-Yr Mortgage · Thu

7.17%

↓ 0.41 from 7.58% Sep 30 peak (MND)

+165K

BREAKING · 7:30 AM CT
October jobs blew past forecasts. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, wages rose 3.1% from a year ago, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs. The 10-year yield jumped about 6 basis points to ~4.90%, so expect lenders to price mortgage rates higher today after four straight days of improvement.

Short on time? Get just the jobs report and what it means for mortgage rates and your payment.

Read the jobs report breakdown →

MON Nov 2

Oil sells off on Iran peace-talk hopes; WTI ~$98.70

Dec Fed hike odds ~76%

30-yr: 7.27% →

TUE Nov 3

Election Day

Job openings +333K to 7.52M

30-yr: 7.30% ↑

WED Nov 4

Democrats win House & Senate

Oil −8.3% to $88.12

ADP +86K (beat)

30-yr: 7.22% ↓

THU Nov 5

Nasdaq correction; money runs to bonds, 10-yr 4.84%

Jobless claims 189K

30-yr: 7.17% ↓

FRI Nov 6

Payrolls +165K; unemployment 4.1%

10-yr jumps to ~4.90%

30-yr: likely higher ↑

30-yr = Mortgage News Daily daily average. Friday's MND average posts this afternoon; the arrow reflects the bond-market move after the jobs report.

Dan's take: "Four days in a row, mortgage rates moved in your favor: down to 7.17%, the lowest since September. Then the jobs report came in at 165,000, almost three times what Wall Street expected. Today I'll show you the WHY behind every move this week, and what it means for your payment."

SEGMENT 1B · 1:30–4:00

The Headlines, Day by Day

13 headlines · one image each

MONDAY · NOV 2

OILMON NOV 2

Oil Sells Off on Iran Peace-Talk Hopes

Crude dropped more than 7% as markets bet on diplomacy ahead of the midterms

$98.70WTI settle

Oil had gained more than 10% in October on fears of escalation after the election.
Mortgage rates held steady at 7.27% as the market waited for Tuesday.

TUESDAY · NOV 3

ELECTIONTUE NOV 3

Election Day: Control of Congress on the Ballot

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats; Republicans held both chambers going in

435House seats

Bonds were cautious all day; mortgage rates edged up to 7.30%, the high for the week.

JOBSTUE NOV 3

Job Openings Jump to 7.52 Million

September openings rose 333,000 and more workers quit for new jobs

7.52Mjob openings

Quits rose to 3.37 million, a sign workers feel confident they can find something better.
The first hint this week that the labor market is stronger than it looked in September.

WEDNESDAY · NOV 4

ELECTIONWED NOV 4

Democrats Win the House and the Senate

About 258 House seats, the widest margin since 1993, plus 7 Senate flips

+7Senate seats

Senate flips: Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina and Maine.
Governor flips: Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio and Iowa.
Rates impact: yields fell; divided government means less new borrowing.

OILWED NOV 4

Oil Falls 8.3% After VP Blames the War

"The reason we lost is the war." Markets now see more pressure to make a deal with Iran

$88.12WTI settle

Brent fell about 20% in three sessions, its biggest three-day drop since April 2020.
Lower oil means less inflation pressure, which is good for mortgage rates.

STOCKSWED NOV 4

Dow Soars 1,569 Points in Post-Election Rally

Best day for the Dow since April 2025; ADP private payrolls beat at +86,000

+1,569Dow points

Mortgage rates fell below 7.25% to 7.22%.

THURSDAY · NOV 5

STOCKSTHU NOV 5

Tech Wreck: Nasdaq Falls Into a Correction

Nasdaq −5.5% and Dow −1,833 on fears of a slower AI data-center buildout; about $2.5 trillion erased

−5.5%Nasdaq

The Nasdaq-100 had its worst day since March 2020.
Investors moved money into the safety of Treasury bonds.

BONDSTHU NOV 5

10-Year Yield Hits a Two-Month Low

The flight to safety pushed the benchmark Treasury yield down to 4.84%

4.84%10-yr yield

Mortgage rates broke below 7.20% to 7.17%, the lowest since September.
Freddie Mac’s weekly average fell for a third straight week to 7.18%.

OILTHU NOV 5

Tanker Attacks Near Hormuz Push Oil Back Up

At least five tankers attacked and one hit a mine; WTI bounced back above $90

$90.52WTI settle

Eurasia Group: 60% chance of renewed U.S. strikes, 10% chance of a deal.
Jobless claims fell to 189,000, another sign layoffs are rare.

FRIDAY · NOV 6

JOBS REPORTFRI NOV 6

Jobs Surge: 165,000 Added in October

Nearly three times the forecast; August and September revised up by 84,000

+165Kpayrolls

Forecast was 59,000–65,000. Wages rose 3.1% from a year ago.

JOBS REPORTFRI NOV 6

Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.1%

Down from 4.2% in September, back to where it was in July and August

4.1%unemployment

A lower unemployment rate plus rising wages strengthens the case for a December Fed hike.

RATESFRI NOV 6

Mortgage Rates Face a Test After Hot Jobs

The 10-year yield jumped about 6 basis points to ~4.90% within minutes of the report

~4.90%10-yr yield

After four straight days of improvement, expect lenders to price rates higher today.
Next test: October CPI on Tuesday.

House

~258 D

Widest margin since 1993 (NBC projection)

House flips

40+

Seats flipped to Democrats (CBS)

Senate

+7 D

From 47 seats to at least 54

Governors

+5 D

TX, GA, NV, OH, IA

Where seats flipped

Senate seat flippedSenate seat + governor flippedGovernor flippedNo statewide flip

Each square is one state. Senate flips: IA, KS, ME, NC, OH, SC, TX (Fortune, NBC). Governor flips: TX, GA, NV, OH, IA (NBC). House flips happened district by district across the country and aren't shown here.

What it means for housing and rates

Divided government: a Democratic Congress and a Republican White House usually means fewer big new spending bills. Investors read that as less new Treasury borrowing, one reason long-term yields eased Wednesday.
Pressure on the war: the Vice President blamed the losses on the Iran war and high gas prices. Markets took that as a sign a deal is more likely. Lower oil means less inflation pressure, which helps mortgage rates.
Oversight, not overnight change: the new Congress is seated in January. Nothing changes in housing finance law today. Watch for future fights over spending, housing programs and the deficit.

Dan's take: "I don't pick sides on this show. I watch what the bond market does. And the bond market liked gridlock: yields fell the day after the election."

WTI crude oil, daily settlement ($ per barrel)

Monday Nov 2 through Friday morning Nov 6

Sources: OilPriceAPI (Mon $98.70, Tue $96.84); EnergyNow/CNBC (Wed $88.12, Thu $90.52); EnergyNow (Fri ~8:30 AM ET, $89.79). Brent was ~$120 at the end of October (FRED spot).

Why oil moved

↓ Mon–Wed

Peace-talk hopes, then politics. Oil sold off Monday on Iran talk headlines. Wednesday it fell 8.3% after the VP said "the reason we lost is the war," and Trump said he had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Brent fell about 20% in three sessions, its biggest drop since April 2020.

↑ Thursday

A reminder the war isn't over. At least five tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, and one hit a mine. Eurasia Group puts the odds of renewed U.S. strikes at 60% and a deal at only 10%. If it escalates, they see Brent at $110–$125.

Dan's position: "The longer the war goes and the longer oil stays high, the more it feeds inflation. That's why oil and mortgage rates have moved together all year. This week we saw the opposite play out, and mortgage rates fell four days straight."

October jobs report	Actual	Forecast	Prior
Nonfarm payrolls	+165,000	+59K (Dow Jones) to +65K	+60K (Sep, revised)
Unemployment rate	4.1% ↓	4.2%	4.2%
Avg hourly earnings (month)	+14¢ (~0.4%)	+0.3%	+0.1%
Avg hourly earnings (year)	3.1%	2.9%	3.0%
Revisions, Aug + Sep	+84,000	—	Aug 133K → 186K; Sep 29K → 60K

Government jobs report (BLS payrolls)

Monthly change, thousands of jobs

Unemployment rate

Percent

Sources: BLS via CNBC, The Hill/PIX11 (Oct release with Aug/Sep revisions); July (−10K) and prior unemployment rates from the Oct 2 BLS release via CNBC and Continuum Economics.

Private payrolls (ADP) point the same way

Month	ADP private payrolls	BLS total payrolls
September	+86K (revised)	+60K (revised)
October	+86K (beat 75K est.)	+165K

Add in job openings rising to 7.52 million and jobless claims at 189,000, and the direction is clear: employment is strengthening, not weakening.

WHAT HAPPENED

Hot: 100K+ jobs, 4.1%

Strengthens the case for a December Fed hike. Yields and mortgage rates bounce higher.

In line: ~60K, 4.2%

Would have kept rates near this week's lows.

Cool: under 35K, 4.3%

Would have pushed rates lower.

Dan's take: "Good news for workers can be bad news for rates. More jobs and rising wages mean more spending and more inflation pressure. The bond market sold off within minutes, and that pushes mortgage rates up."

Headline CPI, year over year

% change from a year earlier

Fed funds rate

3.75%–4.00%

Hiked Sept 16; held Oct 28 by a 10–2 vote, with both dissenters wanting a hike

December hike odds (CME FedWatch)

~69–73%

Before today's report, down from ~85% after the Fed meeting. A hot jobs report pushes these back up.

Sources: BLS via CNBC (CPI 3.7% Sep, core 2.6%; gasoline +34.2% y/y); Commerce Dept. via CNBC (PCE 3.6%, core 3.1%; Q3 GDP 3.4%); Fox Business (FOMC); CME FedWatch via CoinDesk and PANews.

Inflation is running near 3.7% while the economy grew 3.4% last quarter. Today's jobs and wage numbers add to the Fed's reasons to hike again on December 8–9. The next big test is October CPI on Tuesday.

Dan's take: "The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, the bond market does. But when the bond market thinks the Fed will hike, it demands higher yields. That's why the jobs report and Tuesday's CPI matter so much."

30-year fixed mortgage rate since the September 16 Fed hike

Mortgage News Daily average, selected dates (%)

Sources: Mortgage News Daily (Sep 16 7.24%; Sep 29 7.50%; Sep 30 7.58%; Nov 2–5); Yahoo Finance citing MND (Oct 9 7.48%). Friday's MND average posts this afternoon.

Milestone	30-yr (MND)	What drove it
Sep 16: Fed hikes	7.24%	Highest since Jan 2025; the 10-yr crossed 5%
Sep 30: the peak	7.58%	Oil, inflation fears and debt worries; 10-yr hit its highest since 2002
Nov 3: Election Day	7.30%	Yields easing as oil cooled
Nov 5: last close	7.17%	Election, oil drop, tech sell-off sent money into bonds
Nov 6: today	Likely higher	Hot jobs report; 10-yr up ~6 bp to ~4.90%

10-year Treasury yield: mortgage rates follow it

Approximate yield, selected dates (%)

Sources: Bankrate (above 5.3% week of Oct 7); AP (4.95% Nov 3); FXStreet (4.90% Nov 4); CNN (4.84% Nov 5); CNBC (~4.90% after Friday's jobs report).

The WHY: "Notice the Fed hiked in September, but rates kept rising for two more weeks, then fell for five weeks while the Fed did nothing. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury and the mortgage bond market, and those trade every single day on jobs, inflation, oil and fear."

Buying a $400,000 home

10% down · $360,000 loan · 30-yr fixed

Rate	P&I / month
7.58% (Sep 30 peak)	$2,537
7.24% (Fed hike day)	$2,453
7.17% (Thursday)	$2,436

−$101/mo

vs. the peak: about $1,212 a year, or $36,000+ over 30 years

Refinancing a $400,000 balance

Example: a homeowner who locked near 8% (where rates topped out in late 2023)

Rate	P&I / month
8.00% (current loan)	$2,935
7.17% (new loan)	$2,707

−$228/mo

With ~$6,000 in closing costs, break-even is about 26 months. If you bought at this fall's 7.58% peak, the savings is about $112/mo; watch it, don't rush it.

Principal and interest only, new 30-year term; excludes taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance. Closing costs are an illustrative assumption. Not a loan offer; your rate depends on credit, loan amount, down payment and program.

Dan's take: "After today's jobs report, rates may give back a little. That's exactly why you want to be ready before the next dip, not after it. Put your loan on Rate Watch and I'll tell you when the numbers work."

MON

TRU Week Ahead show

TUE

October CPI: the biggest number before the Fed

WED

Veterans Day: bond market closed

THU

Freddie Mac weekly rate; jobless claims

FRI

TRU Week in Review

All week: oil and Iran headlines, plus tech stocks. A deal or more stock selling helps rates; escalation hurts them. Coming up: November jobs report Dec 4, Fed decision Dec 9.

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MONDAYThe week ahead

FRIDAYThe week in review

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