10-Year Treasury BREAKS 4%! Here’s What It Means for Mortgage Rates

What It Means for Mortgage Rates

The Rate Update with Dan Frio

October 15, 2025 • Wednesday Opening Bell Template
🏦10Y UST4.13%🏦2Y UST3.59%💵UMBS 5.5100‑28🏠Conv 30Y6.05%🛡️FHA 30Y6.03%🏦10Y UST4.13%🏦2Y UST3.59%💵UMBS 5.5100‑28🏠Conv 30Y6.05%🛡️FHA 30Y6.03%📈Dow FutLive📈S&P FutLive📈Nasdaq FutLive🪙BTCLive

📰 Opening Bell Headlines — What’s Moving Rates & Markets

📈 Mortgage Rates — “Wednesday Opening Bell”

🏠 Conventional Rates
30‑Year Fixed
15‑Year Fixed
Source: Mortgage News Daily
🛡️ Government Rates
FHA 30‑Year Fixed
VA 30‑Year Fixed
Source: Mortgage News Daily
🏦 Treasury Yields
10‑Year UST
2‑Year UST
Tap for live quotes
💵 MBS — UMBS 30‑yr 5.5
Δ vs Prior Day
−0.03
Source: MND MBS Dashboard

🧮 Inflation Numbers

CPI — Consumer Price Index
Latest2.9% (Delayed to Oct 24)
Δ vs Prior+0.2 pp vs Jul
Source: BLS CPI News Release
Core CPI — ex‑Food & Energy
Latest3.1% (Delayed to Oct 24)
Δ vs Prior0.0 pp vs Jul
Source: BLS CPI (Delayed to Oct 24)
PCE Price Index
Latest2.7% (Aug) (Aug 2025)
Δ vs Prior+0.1 pp vs Jul
Source: BEA PCE
Core PCE — ex‑Food & Energy
Latest2.7% (Aug) (Aug 2025)
Δ vs Prior0.0 pp vs Jul
Source: BEA Personal Income & Outlays
We’ll plug in the freshest prints and month‑over‑month changes right before the live show; links above go to the official releases.

👷 Jobs & Labor

Unemployment Rate (BLS)
Latest4.3% (Aug 2025 — last official)
Δ vs PriorΔ vs Jul 2025: 0.0 pp
Source: BLS Employment Situation
ADP Employment (Private)
Latest−32,000 (Sep 2025)
Δ vs Prior−29,000 vs Aug (−3,000)
Source: ADP National Employment Report
Initial Jobless Claims (DOL)
LatestGovernment shutdown — limited/paused reporting
Δ vs Prior
Source: U.S. Department of Labor — UI Weekly Claims
Continued Claims (DOL)
LatestGovernment shutdown — limited/paused reporting
Δ vs Prior
Source: U.S. Department of Labor — UI Weekly Claims
If official series are paused during a government shutdown, the tiles will note it. ADP continues to publish independently.

📋 Mortgage Rate Playbook — Opening Bell Game Plan

🎯 Scenario🏦 10‑yr UST🏠 UMBS 30‑yr🧭 Bias
Base (short shutdown)3.95–4.10% (today ~4.0%)FirmerFloat carefully (morning)
Extended shutdown (>2 wks)4.10–4.30%WeakerLock on rallies
Dovish Fed / soft PCE< 3.95%StrongerFloat short‑term
Playbook reflects this week’s inflation prints, jobs backdrop, and shutdown‑driven data gaps. Use lender sheets for lock decisions.

🎬 Latest Videos

🎤 Media Appearances

🔗 Get Started & Resources

📡 RateWatch 2.0 (Refi)

Open RateWatch 2.0

🛒 Purchase Path

Get Pre‑Qualified

🏦 Conventional 1% Down

View Program

🎁 $7,000 Grant Program

See Grant Details

📝 Daily Blog

Read the Blog

🧮 Calculators

Open Calculators

✍️ Blog Signup

Visit Blog

📜 Compliance & Disclosures

Regulatory: © 2025 The Rate Update with Dan Frio. NMLS #246527 | Bank NMLS #203463 | Equal Housing Lender.

No Commitment to Lend: Information herein is educational and for general purposes only; it is not a loan approval or offer to extend credit. All loans subject to credit, income, and property approval. Rates, terms, and programs may change without notice and may not be available in all states.

Disclaimers: Rate scenarios are illustrative and may differ based on credit profile, LTV, occupancy, loan amount, and lock period. Taxes, insurance, HOA dues, MI, and fees may apply. APR reflects total finance charges over the loan term and varies by county and title fees.

Independence: Views expressed are the presenter’s and do not necessarily reflect the views of any affiliated institution. Content is not investment, legal, or tax advice. Consult appropriate professionals.

Fair Lending: We support equal housing opportunity. We do not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, handicap, or familial status.

Data Sources: Mortgage News Daily, BEA, BLS, ADP, Treasury, and Bloomberg coverage; see links in each tile for the latest releases.

📰 Featured Media Appearances — Dan Frio in the News

Let us help you!

Our representative will be in touch with you.

* Specific loan program availability and requirements may vary. Please get in touch with your mortgage advisor for more information.