You Be the Economist — While the Government Is Shut Down

Published October 7, 2025

Special Edition

You Be the Economist — While the Government Is Shut Down

No official jobs, CPI or PPI today. In this issue, I’ll show you how to read the real‑time signals that still drive mortgage rates: the 10‑Year Treasury, MBS pricing, the dollar, energy, and rent trends — so you can think like an economist.

Watch: “Be Your Own Economist” ▶

What This Edition Covers

How to read the bond market when BLS is dark — focusing on the 10‑Year Treasury and MBS pricing.
Why flat asking rents (Calculated Risk) point to softer CPI shelter and PPI ahead.
Labor “shadow” reads (Carlyle analysis) when there’s no official jobs report.
Action steps: when to check your readiness and how to time a rate lock.

Market Snapshot (as of publish)

US Dollar Index (DXY)	98.30

10‑Year Treasury Yield	4.09%

30‑Year Mortgage Avg	6.38%

MBS (Current Coupon)	UMBS 30yr 5.0: 99.25

S&P 500	6,740.28

NASDAQ	22,941.67

Gold	≈ $3,971/oz

WTI Crude	$61.81/bbl

Tip: For live levels, tap the links in the web version or our tools section below.

Labor (Unofficial Read)

Shutdown Delays Jobs Report — Carlyle’s Analysis Signals Weak Hiring

Carlyle’s “shadow” jobs analysis suggests hiring softened while the official report was delayed by the shutdown.

Rents & Shelter Inflation

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year‑over‑Year

Flat asking rents point to slower shelter inflation (CPI) with a lag, supporting a cooler inflation narrative.

🎥 Watch: Be Your Own Economist

In today’s video, I walk through how to monitor the 10‑Year Treasury, MBS pricing, the dollar, energy and rent data — and connect those dots to mortgage rates and timing your lock.

Watch Today’s Breakdown ▶

Tools & Next Steps

Buyer 2026 Readiness Quiz		SmartCredit — Track & Fix		Credit Karma — Monitor
Budget App — Plan		Apply Now		15‑min Consult

Affiliate disclosure: We may earn a commission if you sign up for certain services using the links above.

Contact

Dan Frio — The Rate Update

Peoples Bank & Trust (Hazard) | NMLS #227262 | Equal Housing Lender

Email: info@therateupdate.com • Phone: (xxx) xxx‑xxxx

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