Fewer contracts. A new opening for buyers?
September versus August
September versus September 2025
National Association of Realtors
Pending sales measure signed contracts on existing homes before closing. Contract activity fell across all four regions. This is a sales-activity decline—not a 7.3% decline in home prices.
Source: NAR’s October 20, 2026 release. Figures refer to September 2026.
The possible opportunity
A slower local market may give you more time and room to negotiate price, repairs or eligible seller credits. Ask your Realtor whether that is happening in your target neighborhood.
The question before waiting
How much would prices or rates need to improve to make your payment work? There is no guarantee either will move in your favor—or move together.
Set your payment before your price.
Your approval ceiling and your comfortable budget can be different numbers.
You know what you can spend each month. Now subtract the costs that sit alongside your mortgage principal and interest. That leaves the amount available for the loan itself.
Illustrative monthly allowances: property taxes $500, homeowners insurance $150 and mortgage insurance $150; HOA $0. Actual amounts vary by property, location and loan. Keep a separate allowance for maintenance, utilities and savings, plus cash for closing costs and reserves.
Watch the neighborhood you want to buy in.
A national housing headline cannot price the house down your street.
What are buyers actually paying?
Ask your Realtor for recent comparable sales that match the location, size and condition you want.
Are sellers adjusting?
Watch price reductions, days on market, available homes and seller credits toward eligible closing costs.
What comes with this house?
Get property-specific tax, insurance and HOA estimates. Two homes at the same price can carry different payments.
What mortgage rate should you budget with?
Start with a current quote for your situation. Then test a higher rate.
Could improve affordability
Useful for planning. Do not make the purchase depend on getting this rate later.
Build the budget here
Use an actual lender quote matched to your credit, down payment, loan program and rate-lock period.
Check your breathing room
Testing a half-point increase shows how much payment risk you have before locking.
All displayed rates are hypothetical examples, not current rate offers, forecasts or guaranteed ranges. A 0.50 percentage-point stress test is a planning choice, not a limit on how far rates can move. Compare lender fees, discount points and APR alongside the quoted interest rate.
What could move your rate next?
Watch inflation and employment for clues. Keep your budget grounded in an actual quote.
Are price increases cooling?
Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% PCE target. September CPI rose 0.6% for the month; core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.
Core measures exclude food and energy to help reveal underlying price trends. Sources: BEA, BLS and Federal Reserve.
Is hiring slowing?
Hiring was weak, but unemployment remained relatively stable. Watch the BLS jobs report, wages and revisions, with weekly claims and ADP as supporting signals.
September wage growth: 3.0% annually. Source: BLS Employment Situation.
October 28: holding is favored
≈15%Reported chance of an October hike. December hike odds were approximately 88%.
CME FedWatch probabilities as reported by Reuters on October 21, 2026. These are reported snapshots, not a live feed. Check current FedWatch odds ↗
27–28
Federal Reserve meeting
Decision on October 28. Markets assess the decision and signals about future policy.
29
Next PCE inflation report
7:30 a.m. Central—the morning after the Fed decision.
The upcoming PCE report will not be available for the October 28 decision. Sources: Federal Reserve and BEA calendars.
The Fed does not directly set your 30-year mortgage rate. Mortgage bonds and longer-term yields respond to expectations about inflation, growth and future policy. Rates can change before the Fed meets. A widely expected pause may produce little relief; a surprise can move markets either way.
What could help rates?
Inflation or hiring cooling more than markets expected can support lower mortgage rates.
What could push rates up?
Hotter inflation or a tougher-than-expected Fed outlook can put upward pressure on rates.
Directional scenarios, not predictions. FedWatch estimates Fed policy outcomes; it does not estimate your future mortgage rate.
Now put the rate into your payment.
Same home. Same down payment. Different interest rate.
Bars show monthly principal and interest; they start at zero. Fixed rate and 360 monthly payments assumed.
| INTEREST RATE | PRINCIPAL + INTEREST | WITH $800 MONTHLY COSTS* | CHANGE VS. 7.50% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | $2,402 | $3,202 | −$255 |
| 7.00% | $2,528 | $3,328 | −$129 |
| 7.50% | $2,657 | $3,457 | $0 |
| 8.00% | $2,788 | $3,588 | +$131 |
*Adds the illustrative $800 tax, homeowners insurance and mortgage insurance allowance from Section 01. Actual costs and mortgage insurance change with the borrower, property and loan. No HOA included; maintenance and utilities excluded.
But what if the home price changes, too?
Each example uses 5% down and a 30-year fixed term; excludes taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance and HOA. Down payments are $20,000, $21,000 and $19,000 respectively. Scenarios illustrate the tradeoff; they do not predict home prices.
So, should you buy now or wait?
Use the slowdown to investigate opportunities. Use your numbers to make the decision.
- The full payment fits your comfortable budget at an obtainable rate.
- Your down payment and closing costs leave you with a cash cushion.
- Local comparable sales support the negotiated price.
- The home and expected ownership period fit your plans.
- Today’s payment strains your budget.
- You need a future rate drop or refinance to make it affordable.
- You need time to strengthen savings, credit or income stability.
- You cannot find a suitable home at a price supported by local sales.
Two waiting scenarios worth comparing
| SCENARIO | HOME PRICE | RATE | MONTHLY P&I |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy at the starting example | $400,000 | 7.50% | $2,657 |
| Wait: price rises 5%, rate falls | $420,000 | 7.00% | $2,655 |
| Wait: price falls 5%, rate rises | $380,000 | 8.00% | $2,649 |
Hypothetical examples: 5% down, 30-year fixed term, principal and interest only. These are not forecasts. The down payment changes with price, and actual total costs will differ. Include rent, moving costs and the value of retaining savings when comparing buying with waiting.
Ask your Realtor: “Where do current comparable sales, inventory and price reductions give me negotiating room?”
Ask your lender: “What is my full payment today, and what happens if the rate moves half a point?”
If you are under contract, discuss locking versus floating around your closing deadline and your ability to absorb a higher payment. Treat refinancing as a possibility with eligibility requirements and costs.
You do not need to call the bottom.
You need the right house, at a supportable price, with a payment you can carry.
What fits your budget?
Test your home price, down payment and rate—and see the full monthly payment.
Run your own numbers in the TRU Home Buyer app.
Enter your price, down payment, rate, taxes, insurance and monthly budget. Then try a rate half a point higher to see how much room you really have.
SEE WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD ↗Planning estimates only, not a quote or preapproval. Excludes closing costs, maintenance, utilities and future tax or insurance changes.
Know your payment before you make an offer.
Bring your target home price, down payment and comfortable monthly budget. Let’s compare your options and build a buying range that works for you.
RUN YOUR NUMBERS WITH DAN ↗Visit The Rate Update to connect with our team.
Data notes & sources
Prepared October 21, 2026. Economic releases describe different reference months; the FedWatch figures below are reported snapshots. All mortgage-payment examples are independently calculated and illustrative.
- NAR: September pending home sales — October 20 release; signed contracts fell 7.3% monthly and 11.3% annually.
- BEA: August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays — released September 30; next release October 29.
- BLS: September 2026 Consumer Price Index — released October 14.
- BLS: September 2026 Employment Situation — released October 2.
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar and 2% PCE inflation goal.
- Reuters, carried by Business Recorder, October 21 — approximately 15% October hike odds and 88% December hike odds, attributed to CME FedWatch. Live CME table was not independently captured for this article.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: What Determines Mortgage Rates? — mortgage bonds, Treasury yields and expectations.
Header artwork is an AI-generated illustration of the homebuying process.